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Thoughts On The Market Series #1 - The New Normal?

Market Outlook: What to Make of This “New Normal”

By ****\*
March 16, 2020
After an incredibly volatile week – which finished with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallying over 9% on Friday – I suppose my readers might expect me to be quite upbeat about the markets.
Unfortunately, I persist in my overall pessimistic outlook for stocks, and for the economy in general. Friday’s rally essentially negated Thursday’s sell-off, but I don’t expect it to be the start of a sustained turnaround.
We’re getting a taste of that this morning, with the Dow opening down around 7%.
This selloff is coming on the back of an emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve of 100 basis points (to 0%-0.25%) on Sunday… along with the announcement of a new quantitative easing program of $700 billion. (I will write about this further over the next several days.)
As I have been writing for many weeks, the financial bubble – which the Fed created by pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system – has popped. It will take some time for the bubble to deflate to sustainable levels.
Today I’ll walk you through what’s going on in the markets and the economy… what I expect going forward and why… and what it means for us as traders. (You’ll see it’s not all bad news.)

Coronavirus’ Strain on the Global Economy

To start, let’s put things in perspective: This asset deflation was coming one way or another. Covid19 (or coronavirus) has simply accelerated the process.
Major retailers are closing, tourism is getting crushed, universities and schools are sending students home, conventions, sporting events, concerts, and other public gatherings have been cancelled, banks and other financial service firms are going largely virtual, and there has been a massive loss of wealth.
Restaurant data suggests that consumer demand is dropping sharply, and the global travel bans will only worsen the situation.
Commercial real estate is another sector that looks particularly vulnerable. We are almost certain to see a very sharp and pronounced economic slowdown here in the United States, and elsewhere. In fact, I expect a drop of at least 5% of GDP over the next two quarters, which is quite severe by any standard.
Sure, when this cycle is complete, there will be tremendous amounts of pent-up demand by consumers, but for the time being, the consumer is largely on the sidelines.
Of course, the problems aren’t just in the U.S. China’s numbers look awful. In fact, the government there may have to “massage” their numbers a bit to show a positive GDP in the first quarter. Europe’s numbers will also look dreadful, and South Korea’s economy has been hit badly.
All around the world, borders are being shut, all non-essential businesses are being closed, and people in multiple countries are facing a lockdown of historic proportions. The coronavirus is certainly having a powerful impact, and it looks certain that its impact will persist for a while.
Consider global tourism. It added almost $9 trillion to the global economy in 2018, and roughly 320 million jobs. This market is in serious trouble.
Fracking in the U.S. is another business sector that is in a desperate situation. Millions of jobs and tens of billions of loans are now in jeopardy.
The derivative businesses that this sector supports will be likewise devastated as companies are forced to reduce their workforces or shut down due to the collapse in oil prices. This sector’s suffering will probably force banks to book some big losses despite attempts by the government to support this industry.
In a similar way, the derivative businesses that are supported by the universities and colleges across America are going to really suffer.
There are nearly 20 million students in colleges across the U.S. When they go home for spring vacation and do not return, the effect on the local businesses that colleges and university populations support will be devastating.
What does this “new normal” mean going forward? Let’s take a look…

New Normal

The new normal may become increasingly unpleasant for us. We need to be ready to hunker down for quite some time.
Beyond that, the government needs to handle this crisis far better in the future.
The level of stupidity associated with the massive throngs of people trapped in major airports yesterday, for example, was almost unimaginable.
Instead of facilitating the reduction of social contact and halting the further spread of the coronavirus, the management of the crowds at the airports produced a perfect breeding ground for the spread of the virus.
My guess is that more draconian travel restrictions will be implemented soon, matching to some extent the measures taken across Europe.
This will in turn have a further dampening effect on economic activity in the U.S., putting more and more pressure on the Fed and the government to artificially support a rapidly weakening economy.
Where does this end up? It is too early to say, but a very safe bet is that we will have some months of sharply negative growth. Too many sectors of the economy are going to take a hit to expect anything else.
The Fed has already driven interest rates to zero. Will that help? Unlikely. In fact, as I mentioned at the beginning of this update, the markets are voting with a resounding NO.
The businesses that are most affected by the current economic situation will still suffer. Quantitative easing is hardly a cure-all. In fact, it has been one of the reasons that we have such a mess in our markets today.
The markets have become addicted to the easy money, so more of the same will have little or no impact. We will need real economic demand, not an easier monetary policy.
It won’t help support tourism, for example, or the other sectors getting smashed right now. The government will need to spend at least 5% of GDP, or roughly $1 trillion, to offset the weakness I see coming.
Is it surprising that the Fed and the government take emergency steps to try to stabilize economic growth? Not at all. This is essentially what they have been doing for a long time, so it is completely consistent with their playbook.
Next, I would anticipate the government implementing some massive public-works and infrastructure programs over the coming months. That would be very helpful, and almost certainly quite necessary.
But there’s a problem with this kind of intervention from the government…

What Happens When You Eliminate the Business Cycle

The Fed’s foolish attempt to eliminate business cycles is a significant contributing factor to the volatility we are currently experiencing.
Quantitative easing is nothing more than printing lots and lots of money to support a weak economy and give the appearance of growth and prosperity. In fact, it is a devaluation of the currency’s true buying power.
That in turn artificially drives up the prices of other assets, such as stocks, real estate and gold – but it does not create true wealth. That only comes with non-inflationary growth of goods and services and associated increases in economic output.
Inflation is the government’s way to keep people thinking they are doing better.
To that point: We have seen some traditional safe-haven assets getting destroyed during this time of risk aversion. That has certainly compounded the problems of many investors.
Gold is a great example. As the stock market got violently slammed, people were forced to come up with cash to support their losing positions. Gold became a short-term source of liquidity as people sold their gold holdings in somewhat dramatic fashion. It was one of the few holdings of many people that was not dramatically under water, so people sold it.
The move may have seemed perverse, particularly to people who bought gold as a safe-haven asset, but in times of crisis, all assets tend to become highly correlated, at least short term.
We saw a similar thing happen with long yen exposures and long Bitcoin exposures recently.
The dollar had its strongest one-day rally against the yen since November 2016 as people were forced to sell huge amounts of yen to generate liquidity. Many speculators had made some nice profits recently as the dollar dropped sharply from 112 to 101.30, but they have been forced to book whatever profits they had in this position. Again, this was due to massive losses elsewhere in their portfolios.
Is the yen’s sell-off complete? If it is not complete, it is probably at least close to an attractive level for Japanese investors to start buying yen against a basket of currencies. The major supplies of yen have largely been taken off the table for now.
For example, the yen had been a popular funding currency for “carry” plays. People were selling yen and buying higher-yielding currencies to earn the interest rate difference between the liability currency (yen) and the funding currency (for example, the U.S. dollar).
Carry plays are very unpopular in times of great uncertainty and volatility, however, so that supply of yen will be largely gone for quite some time. Plus, the yield advantage of currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar versus the yen is nearly gone.
In addition, at the end of the Japanese fiscal year , there is usually heavy demand for yen as Japanese corporations need to bring home a portion of their overseas holdings for balance sheet window dressing. I don’t expect that pressure to be different this year.
Just as the safe-haven assets of yen and gold got aggressively sold, Bitcoin also got hammered. It was driven by a similar theme – people had big losses and they needed to produce liquidity quickly. Selling Bitcoin became one of the sources of that liquidity.

Heavy Price Deflation Ahead

Overall, there is a chance that this scenario turns into something truly ugly, with sustained price deflation across many parts of the economy. We will certainly have price deflation in many sectors, at least on a temporary basis.
Why does that matter over the long term?
Price deflation is the most debilitating economic development in a society that is debt-laden – like the U.S. today. Prices of assets come down… and the debt becomes progressively bigger and bigger.
The balance sheet of oil company Chesapeake Energy is a classic example. It’s carrying almost $10 billion worth of debt… versus a market cap of only about $600 million. Talk about leverage! When the company had a market cap of $10 billion, that debt level didn’t appear so terrifying.
Although this is an extreme example for illustrative purposes, the massive debt loads of China would seem more and more frightening if we were to sink into flat or negative growth cycles for a while. The government’s resources are already being strained, and it can artificially support only so many failing companies.
The U.S. has gigantic levels of debt as well, but it has the advantage of being the world’s true hegemon, and the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. This creates a tremendous amount of leverage and power in financing its debt.
The U.S. has been able to impose its will on its trading partners to trade major commodities in dollars. This has created a constant demand for the dollar that offsets, to a large extent, the massive trade deficit that the U.S. runs.
For example, if a German company wants to buy oil, then it needs to hold dollars. This creates a constant demand for dollar assets.
In short, the dollar’s status as the true global reserve currency is far more important than most people realize. China does not hold this advantage.

What to Do Now

In terms of how to position ourselves going forward, I strongly recommend that people continue with a defensive attitude regarding stocks. There could be a lot more downside to come. Likewise, we could see some panic selling in other asset classes.
The best thing right now is to be liquid and patient, ready to pounce on special opportunities when they present themselves.
For sure, there will be some exceptional opportunities, but it is too early to commit ourselves to just one industry. These opportunities could come in diverse sectors such as commercial real estate, hospitality, travel and leisure, and others.
As for the forex markets, the volatility in the currencies is extreme, so we are a bit cautious.
I still like the yen as a safe-haven asset. I likewise still want to sell the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar as liability currencies.
Why? The Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have all taken aggressive steps recently, slashing interest rates. These currencies are all weak, and they will get weaker.
Finding an ideal entry for a trade, however, is tricky. Therefore, we are being extra careful with our trading. We always prioritize the preservation of capital over generating profits, and we will continue with this premise.
At the same time, volatility in the markets is fantastic for traders. We expect many excellent opportunities to present themselves over the coming days and weeks as prices get driven to extreme levels and mispricings appear. So stay tuned.
submitted by ParallaxFX to Forex [link] [comments]

End of day summary - 03/06

The Dow fell 256.50, or 0.98%, to 25,864.78 , the Nasdaq lost 162.98, or 1.87%, to 8,575.62 , and the S&P 500 declined 51.57, or 1.71%, to 2,972.37.

The stock market ended a volatile week on a lower note with the S&P 500 (-1.7%) settling just above its low from Monday. The benchmark index gained 0.6% for the week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.0%) outperformed, gaining 1.8% since last Friday.
In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls surged 273,000 in February and the unemployment rate fell back to 3.5%, which matches a five-decade low. Average hourly earnings grew 3.0% year-over-year. While a very strong report, it appears to be discounted because of the coronavirus, though it provides evidence that the U.S. economy was on solid footing before it hit. The trade deficit narrowed 6.7% to $45.3B in January as exports dipped 0.4% to $208.6B and imports dropped 1.6% to $253.9B. Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% in January, but sales jumped 1.6%.
In energy news, Reuters reported that OPEC's plans for prolonged oil cuts have been derailed as Russia refused to support the move contending it is too early to predict the effect of coronavirus on global energy demand. WTI crude for April delivery fell $4.62, or 10.1%, to end at $41.28 a barrel following the news of the OPEC blow-up. Also, Baker Hughes reported that the U.S. rig count is up 3 rigs from last week to 793.
The final session of the week was marred by a continued deterioration of sentiment due to the ongoing spread of the coronavirus while the pressure on growth expectations intensified. Treasuries essentially never stopped after Thursday's cash close, continuing their forceful charge in the overnight futures market. Treasuries did pull back from their highs in midday trade, but the long bond rallied to a fresh record high in the afternoon while the 10-yr note stopped a bit short of its best level of the day. The 10-yr yield fell 22 basis points to 0.71%, representing a 42-basis point drop for the week.
Expectations for another sharp rate cut remain in place with the fed funds futures market pointing to a 56.0% implied likelihood of a 75-basis point rate cut at or before the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on March 18.
The S&P 500 staged a 70-point rally during the final hour of trade, which led to a significant improvement in final sector standings, though all eleven sectors finished in the red.
Four groups surrendered 2.0% or more. Energy (-5.6%) and financials (-3.3%) were particularly weak throughout the day due to their exposure to growth and concerns about issuers of high-yield debt in the energy sector.
Bank stocks suffered from the drop in Treasury yields while energy companies struggled as oil fell $4.57, or 10.0%, to $41.32/bbl. The energy component ended the day at its lowest level since mid-2016 after OPEC+ could not agree to a sharp production cut despite yesterday's reports to the contrary. Russia's Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, said that OPEC+ countries are free to pump at will starting from April 1.
Shares of JPM were sharply lower amid the pullback in the market, though the bank's declines may also be made worse by news that CEO Jamie Dimon experienced an acute aortic dissection and underwent successful emergency heart surgery to repair the health issue. Co-Presidents and Chief Operating Officers Daniel Pinto and Gordon Smith will lead the company as Dimon recovers, the bank confirmed.
Shares of AAPL were lower after a fourth supplier cut guidance amid the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. ON cut its first quarter revenue outlook this morning, becoming the fourth Apple supplier to cut guidance this week after QRVO, SWKS and MCHP did so as well.
In company-specific news, COST reported better than expected Q2 results, but the stock still finished lower. AMD fared better than the broader market after reaffirming its guidance for FY20. The chipmaker did caution that Q1 results are likely to be on the low end of its guidance.
Among the noteworthy gainers were MRNA and OPK, which have each recently reported on efforts linked to combating the coronavirus. Airline stocks like ALK +4.0%, JBLU +0.1%), UAL, +1.0%, and DAL, +2.0% recorded gains on Friday after recovering from fresh multi-year lows. Alaska Air did warn that its guidance for FY20 should no longer be relied upon due to coronavirus-related uncertainty.
Among the notable losers was AOBC, which fell 30% after the gunmaker reported fiscal Q3 results below consensus and guidance. SBUX shares slid 1% after the company provided an update on the impact related to COVID-19 in China. Stifel analyst Chris O'Cull said the earnings impact to Starbucks' fiscal Q2 is likely larger than he projected, be he also pointed out that Starbucks noted there has been no perceptible impact from COVID-19 on the U.S. business.
Shares of cruise operators started the day in positive territory but retreated as the day went on. NCLH, -5.2% was the weakest performer of the bunch, stopping just above its record low (24.16) that was notched when the company went public in early 2013.
European stocks also fell sharply Friday as the coronavirus outbreak continues to impact businesses worldwide.

Currency

The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.9% to 95.98 and was down 2.2% for the week as rate-cut expectations boiled over. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 100% probability of another 50 basis points cut at the March 17-18 FOMC meeting and a 63% probability of a 75 basis points cut.

Treasury

U.S. Treasuries had another huge day as the stock market racked up another day of huge losses amid ongoing concerns about the spread of the coronavirus and budding credit worries. The 10-yr yield, which settled Thursday at 0.93%, went as low as 0.66% in today's curve-flattening trade before losing some steam.

Commodity

Oil prices plunged more than 8% to multi-year lows on Friday as OPEC’s allies rejected additional production cuts that the organization proposed Thursday. The meeting between OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, concluded with no deal on additional production cuts.
Agriculture:

Crypto

As global equity markets continue to get pummeled, bitcoin’s return to the $9,000 level may have been driven by some of the same forces causing a rally in bonds – a desire for respite from a coronavirus-plagued markets.

Bonds, Virus and Valuation

The move in Treasuries has been precipitated by flight-safety flows that have been fueled by economic growth concerns stemming from the spread of the coronavirus. It has also been stoked by momentum, interest rate differentials, and policy stimulus expectations, the latter of which have also been nothing short of stunning.
The CME FedWatch Tool is showing a 100% probability of another 50 basis points cut at the March 17-18 FOMC meeting and a 64% probability of a 75 basis points cut.
Those expectations capture the view that the coronavirus isn't "just another flu." It might have similar characteristics, but when was the last time entire cities were quarantined, professional sporting events were canceled, travel restrictions were imposed, orchestrated efforts to force employees to work from home, states of emergency were declared, U.S. schools were closed, and the Federal Reserve ushered in an emergency 50 basis points rate cut because of the flu?
Coronavirus is quite different from the flu because the reaction to it has been universally different -- and that reaction is what gets lost in the debate as to whether the coronavirus is "just another flu." Rightly or wrongly, the coronavirus is creating an economic disruption in a manner no normal flu has in our modern age and that is the important distinction for the capital markets and policymakers.
It's another reason why the strong employment report for February has been glossed over for the most part by the market. At any other time, the Treasury market would be selling off on today's report, and, arguably, the futures market would be moving sharply higher -- but this isn't any other time.
The key takeaway from the report isn't what was in the report, it was the lackluster response to it, which is a function of expecting employment reports in coming months not to look as good because of the coronavirus impact.
The market multiple has contracted to 16.7x, which is now in-line with the five-year average -- only it isn't because earnings estimates are going to fall further.

YTD

  • FAAMG + some penny stocks -4.4% YTD
  • Spoos -8.0% YTD
  • Old man -9.4% YTD
  • Russy -13.1% YTD
Summary scraped from the interweb. Took 0.18 seconds.
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How I am trading the Dow Jones

How I am trading the Dow Jones

My current open trade positions including 2x Dow Long Trades
I currently have 2 long positions open on the Dow Jones index and have been trading the recent bull run for almost 2 weeks now. The long term trend for this index is definitely bullish and any pullbacks in price are swiftly being met by more new buyers.
Dow 4hr chart
There are a few reasons for this. Firstly, there is no reason for US stocks to sell off in a dramatic fashion. There have (and always will be) lots of rumours of a recession with US debt levels rising and stocks being “overpriced” but that alone is not a reason to expect a recession right now.
Stocks have been called overpriced since the dawn of time because naturally they increase in price as time goes on. Much like the cost of a loaf of bread, inflation causes the prices of stocks to rise and Index’s will replace stocks that lose a lot of market cap with new up and coming stocks.
The second reason people keep calling for a recession immeidately is because of the increased levels of debt and borrowing in the USA.
The levels of US debt (measured as a % of GDP) are at their highest since World War 2 but that is not a major problem. The US Dollar is still used as a global reserve currency. It is why you will see many 3rd world countries preferring to accept it over their own currency and it is used as the base for Crude Oil and Gold valuations so the demand for US dollars will almost always be apparent.
US Debt (GDP %)
Many people say Gold or Bitcoin is the next major backup for currency when the recession hits but the simple fact is that you can’t pay for anything with gold. No business is going to accept gold in exchange for food & water, rent, mortgage payments or utilities bills. And bitcoin is about as stable as 2 legged donkey.
My trade entries:
My first long position entry developed from a quick day trade I planned and entered last week. I entered a very tight stop loss, short duration trade with a reasonable reward:risk of just under 3R.
Dow 15 min chart
I spotted a good daily buying trend appearing. Price had rejected a major support zone at $28,150 and from there it one ton to make nice higher highs and higher lows through the follow 4 days of trading. I entered long on the bounce of the bullish trendline and 50 EMA.
I closed a good percentage of my position at my first profit target which is shown on the chart above. However there was strong bullish momentum and I am still holding a portion of that initial long trade position open.
Dow 4hr chart
My second long trade position was entered on Monday morning after price had made a clear higher higher low and bounced off of the intraday support/resistance zone at $28,900. There was a strong 4hr bullish wick rejection candle closure and price closed above the support zone and 50 EMA.
Both trade entries are just very simple trend continuation entries with good reward:risk ratios.
Fundamentals & data:
Later today we have the U.S Crude Oil inventories data being released. This shouldn’t move the Dow Jones Index unless a shock figure is announced. Theoretically if inventory levels are massively increased then the price of Crude will fall dramatically and this will pull stocks down. The opposite can be said if Crude Oil price rises sharply.
This evening (7pm GMT) there is the US monthly budget statement for JAN 2020 but this shouldn’t move markets in a major way. However, you may see some short term volatility moves.
The main mover of markets this week will be the USD consumer price index data that is being released tomorrow afternoon. Inflation can be a double edged sword because it can stimulate job growth and as we have seen recently, the US job market is still growing rapidly. However, inflation can also effect corporations and their profit levels because it costs more to purchase goods/materials used for production.
We also have the ongoing global issue of the Corona Virus. it initiated the last big sell-off on global indices at the end of January and the related headlines will continue to influence the markets.
Long term price predictions:
Dow daily chart
If price continues to climb today then I would like to think there is enough momentum to break through the $29,500 resistance zone. If this happens then I see no reason why new all time highs won’t be achieved and a significant daily/4hr higher will made.
Dow 4hr chart
Long term profit targets are set at $29,800 which is a higher high for price. From there, if that level breaks then the key psychological level of $30,000 is next in line. I know there are a lot of professional and institutional traders wanting to see “Dow to $30k” and I am certain Mr Trump wants to see stocks climb right up until he is re-elected.
The alternative scenario is that price finds more resistance at $29,500 and begins to drop off. This is not a major issue and I will likely look to take some more profits if rejections of that price zone begin to appear.
*Taken from my blog site https://diaryofafinancekid.com/blog/
submitted by TheModernSpeculator to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Can Bitcoin separate from the independent market

Can Bitcoin separate from the independent market
Recently, the price of Bitcoin plunged to $ 3,600 on BitMEX and $ 3,800 on Bitfinex, setting the worst one-day drop in seven years. The sell-off coincided with a sharp correction in the US stock market.
Bitcoin, at least in theory, should be a safe-haven asset immune to the turbulence of traditional financial markets. However, in the past two weeks, as investors frantically sold high-risk assets, Bitcoin has begun to fall in sync with the stock market.
Do US stocks dive leading crypto market down?
Over the past week, the bitcoin price has responded to several key events, including President Trump's announcement of a 30-day travel ban between the United States and Europe, and the Federal Reserve's announcement to reduce the federal benchmark interest rate to 0.00% -0.25% Levels and more.
Compared with the trend of S & P 500, Bitcoin is almost the same as Bitcoin.
https://preview.redd.it/2asc4s2plfn41.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=495f610ada720436a3abfd8e97d66ac062def543
OKEx's advanced analysis is that William told Golden Finance, "Just as bitcoin price has no correlation with gold, there is no obvious correlation between bitcoin and U.S. stocks. The reason why U.S. stocks and bitcoin are falling is that the market is too lacking Liquidity, all funds are looking for safe, liquid assets. "
He explained by way of example that, in normal time, the water in the well is difficult to connect with the water in the lake; but the sky fell and the water levels of the lake and the well fell sharply. Even so, there was not much connection between the two sides. Just because of the influence of the big climate.
US stocks are about to open. How is Bitcoin trending?
In the early morning of March 18, local time, all three major US stock index futures fell, triggering trading restrictions.
The S & P 500 index futures contract for June 2020 fell to 2393.50 points, down 3.70%, hitting trading restrictions. The NASDAQ (7334.78, 430.19, 6.23%) index futures contract for June 2020 fell to 7064.25 points, hitting trading restrictions. The Dow Jones (21237.3809, 1048.86, 5.20%) index for the June 2020 contract was reported at 2039 points, which also hit trading restrictions.
Only 2 hours from the opening of the US stock market, will the US stocks reappear?
In this regard, industry analysts believe that the current US government is preparing to introduce the US $ 700 billion to the US $ 1 trillion stimulus plan and issue it directly to the public. All the US stocks rose due to this positive impact yesterday. But whether the liquidity crisis can be resolved is still a question mark. In addition, there are already confirmed cases in all states in the United States, the number of confirmed diagnoses in Europe is also rising sharply, a large number of factory shutdowns, which has a great impact on the stock market, so the probability of US stocks will fall in the next few months. Investors are not advised to take a dip at this time. It is now a crisis period and a dip is now a high-risk event. Regarding Bitcoin, it is recommended that you do not buy it, for the time being, at least it is not too late to buy it after the liquidity crisis has passed.
In terms of technical indicators, BTC remained within the rising triangle range formed after the recent big drop. The rebound started yesterday evening with the rise of U.S. stocks, but the strength was limited, and it was difficult to form a more powerful rebound in the short term. After wearing the Bollinger Middle Rail for 4 hours, the MACD bullish measuring column started to weaken above the 0 axes. The fast and slow lines have flattened, and the short-term upward momentum is insufficient. In the near future, it is still shock-organized. Parallel head up, volume matching, and breaking through the 4-hour potential double bottom neckline to suppress the high point of $ 5,950. Later, it is expected to test the previous low of 6400-6500. At present, the support below is the uptrend line. Today's limit is 4850. US dollar, the next 4-hour level is 4880 US dollars, short-term support to increase about 30 US dollars every 4 hours, the short-term operation can pay attention to these positions, the current overall maintenance of the triangle interval, waiting for direction choice.
https://preview.redd.it/gi1j9jewlfn41.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcdd2da52cd6a7de41d561c21760d8ff7eb6fc32
submitted by FinnHe to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

End of day summary - 11/20

The Dow fell 112.93, or 0.40%, to 27,821.09 , the Nasdaq fell 43.93, or 0.51%, to 8,526.73 , and the S&P 500 declined 11.72, or 0.38%, to 3,108.46.
The S&P 500 declined as much as 0.9% on Wednesday after Reuters reported that a Phase One trade deal may not get completed this year. Stocks cut losses throughout the afternoon, leaving the benchmark index down 0.4% for the session -- comparable to the losses in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.5%), and Russell 2000 (-0.4%).
The negative-sounding headline conflicted with the optimistic tone struck by top White House officials, including Commerce Secretary Ross just last night. Also transpiring last night was the U.S. Senate passing the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, much to the contempt of China. Altogether, it seemed like a good time to take profits, especially if the Dec. 15 tariffs still go into effect.
The trade-sensitive areas of the market like the S&P 500 materials (-1.2%), industrials (-0.8%), and information technology (-0.7%) sectors led the decline. The communication services sector (-0.8%), which contains many growth-oriented stocks, also underperformed.
Unsurprisingly, though, selling pressure quickly abated amid an opportunistic mindset among investors eagerly awaiting a dip. In addition, the details of the report were not as foreboding as the headline, and knee-jerk selling, suggested. Tucked in the report was a line indicating that some "China and trade experts" were still optimistic about a deal in the coming weeks.
Leading the afternoon comeback was the energy sector (+1.0%), which found reprieve amid a 3% rebound in oil prices ($56.91, +1.70, +3.1%). The defensive-oriented utilities (+0.6%), consumer staples (+0.2%), and real estate (+0.03%) sectors also finished in positive territory.
Separately, the release of the FOMC Minutes from the October meeting didn't draw much attention, as it was consistent with the prevailing view about monetary policy since that meeting. Economic data was limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index, which declined 2.2% following a 9.6% increase in the prior week.
Among the noteworthy gainers was TGT, which jumped 12% after the retailer reported better than expected sales and profits for the third quarter and raised its full-year forecast ahead of the critical holiday quarter. Discussing the results, chairman and CEO Brian Cornell touted that Target is "seeing industry-leading strength across multiple metrics, from the top line to the bottom line.". LOW is also rising 4% following its own "beat and raise" third quarter report, with CEO Marvin Ellison attributing the "strong" earnings per share growth to the company's "improved execution.
Also higher was was PAYC, which rose 8.46% after RBC Capital Mkts upgraded to Outperform,which states that it is "increasingly confident in [co's] ability to realize price, improve retention, and drive a long runway of continued market disruption and penetration." The stock, which had already risen by +13% month-to-date as of yesterday's close, today touched up to new all-time highs. I also gained 15% after Raymond James analyst Richard Prentiss upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform.
Among the notable losers was PDD, which dumped 23.04% after missing consensus for Q3 EPS. WBK sinked to its lowest levels since last December on higher than average volume after being accused by regulators of breaching anti-money laundering laws. Co's management acknowledged co's recognition that certain issues pertinent to the proceedings, such as a previously disclosed self-reported failure to report a large number of international funds transfer instructions, "should never have occurred and should have been identified and rectified sooner"; co "is carefully reviewing the claim and will be working constructively with AUSTRAC to resolve the matter."
Also lower was URBN, which slid 14% after reporting quarterly results along with China's PDD, which fell 21%.
GM filed a lawsuit today in U.S. District Court in Detroit alleging FCAU got an unfair business advantage by bribing officials of the United Auto Workers union, Tom Krisher of Associated Press reported . The suit alleges that Fiat corrupted the bargaining process with the UAW in the 2009, 2011 and 2015 union contracts to gain advantages over GM. Shares of Fiat Chrysler were down 2.5% immediately following the AP's report, while GM was down 2%.
Elsewhere, The pan-European Stoxx 600 was 0.3% lower at the closing bell. Mainland Chinese stocks ended the day lower, with the Shanghai composite down 0.78% to 2,911.05 and the Shenzhen component shedding 0.82% to 9,809.05. The Shenzhen composite was around 0.707% lower at 1,635.16. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped about 0.73%, as of its final hour of trading.

Currency

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.1% to 97.93.

Treasury

U.S. Treasuries enjoyed another day of solid gains that pressured yields on the 5-yr note, the 10-yr note, and the 30-yr bond back below their respective 50-day moving averages. Treasuries backed off their morning levels in midday trade but jumped to fresh highs after Reuters reported that the partial trade deal with China may not get signed this year. President Trump was asked about negotiations with China a bit later, to which he responded, "China wants to make a deal. The question is: Do I want to make a deal? Because I like what's happening right now. We're taking in billions and billions of dollars."

Commodity

Oil gained more than 3% on Wednesday after data showed a smaller than expected build in U.S. inventories. The move also came as tensions in the Middle East rose, with Yemen’s Houthi rebels claimed they intercepted a Saudi warplane. Gold fell, retreating from a two-week high hit earlier in the session,** after the United States started issuing licenses for some companies to supply goods to Chinese firm Huawei, rekindling hopes for trade negotiations that had shown signs of turning more contentious.**

Crypto

As it stands, most of the cryptocurrencies in the top 30 by market capitalization are in the red, with BTC, ETH and XRP down between 1-2% each.

YTD

  • Nas +28.5%
  • Spoos +24.0%
  • Old Man +18.0%
  • Rusell +19.3%

AH News

  • SONO Earnings - EPS (28c) vs (22c). 4Q Rev. $294.2M, Est. $289.2M
  • U.S. Senator Markey: Amazon Ring's policies 'open door' for privacy violations
  • PayPal To Buy Honey For Around $4.0 Bln
  • Unusual options: CGC (calls), PM (puts)
Summary scraped from the interweb. Took 0.06 seconds.
submitted by hibernating_brain to thewallstreet [link] [comments]

Review: The most thrilling 24 hours in Bitcoin history

From 12:00 on March 12th to 12:00 on the 13th, Bitcoin, the most influential currency in the cryptocurrency industry, suffered two major declines, and its price fell from a maximum of 7,672 USD to a minimum of 3,800 USD (data from Huobi, the next Same), the decline was 50.4%, which means that the price of Bitcoin has achieved a fairly accurate "half price" in these 24 hours.
Previously, Bitcoin's "halving market" was mostly considered to be an increase in market prices caused by Bitcoin's halving production, although many people have questioned the "halving market" as " The price is halved ", but when bitcoin walks out of the current bad market, it still surprises most investors.
First plunge
The bad 24 hours started at 12 o'clock on March 12. Due to the rapid spread of the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States, the global financial markets have been raining for several days. After several adjustments, the price of Bitcoin has hovered up and down within the range of $ 7600-8200 in the previous three days. However, after 12 o'clock on the 12th, Bitcoin The price fell below $ 7,600 for the first time, breaking the psychological expectations of many investors, entering a rapid decline channel, and dropping to about $ 7,200 at around 18 o'clock.
At this time, the decline of Bitcoin is still around 7%, which is a common occurrence in the history of Bitcoin. However, after 18 o'clock that day, the market turned sharply, and the price of bitcoin plunged again in a short period of time. It fell to US $ 5,555 within tens of minutes, a drop of 28%, and the amount of contractual positions on each platform exceeded US $ 2 billion.
During the decline, most major exchanges such as Huobi, Binance, and OKEx experienced systemic freezes of varying degrees. Many users complained for a long time that the exchange app could not properly display the homepage, market page, and transaction page, and added positions, stops, and withdrawals. Obstacles such as cash withdrawal and cash withdrawal operations have also shown that this situation also highlights that mainstream exchanges still fail to address the ability of their trading systems to respond to extreme conditions.
For this decline, the collective sell-off of large Bitcoin holders is considered to be the main reason. For example, Grayscale Investment, the world's largest crypto asset fund management company, was sold and sold 40,000-50,000 Bitcoins. News from the exchange said that Bitcoin sold 400,000.
For a long time, bitcoin has been called "digital gold" by the blockchain industry, and has good risk aversion properties. During the tense situation between the United States and Iran in January this year and the global stock market fell, Bitcoin rose from $ 7,200 all the way to more than $ 10,000. Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes have been widely recognized in history, but this time caused by the new crown epidemic Under the risk of the global economic downturn, the decline in the price of bitcoin has become the asset with the largest depreciation among various mainstream financial assets, and its high-risk nature will most likely collapse.
Some analysts believe that bitcoin should be further classified as an alternative asset. At a time when liquidity shortage is extremely serious, as a high-risk alternative investment asset with the highest volatility in the world, funds will naturally be drawn from the market by investors. Looking for safer, more liquid assets, prices plummet.
"Everyone in the future will realize that Bitcoin is not digital gold, but" an amplifier of risk. " Its value cannot be anchored. Unlike other asset prices, which are affected by costs and prices, Bitcoin has no normal market value range. As of now, it does not have any convincing valuation basis, more like a swaying boat. Without the anchor, its value fluctuates greatly, and the impact of halving the market and supply and demand on it is far less important than psychological factors. "Said Cai Kailong, senior researcher at the Institute of Financial Technology of Renmin University of China.
However, some people in the industry hold different opinions. "BTC is still the most powerful currency in the history of mankind. It provides liquidity 24 hours a day. This is something that other markets simply can't imagine, but because liquidity is too good, this time it just happened to happen in other markets. When funds are scarce, the first choice for selling supplementary funds has also led to the decline of gold. Of course, the amount of BTC that is currently much lower than gold is certainly unstoppable in a short period of time. "A Weibo blogger" "fhrp".
In addition to the sell-off of large institutions, some mortgage lending platforms have also passively become an important boost for this downturn. In the past six months, the Defi concept has been particularly hot in the blockchain industry, and many cryptocurrency-based cryptocurrency lending platforms were born.
As a result, a large number of large Bitcoin users will pledge the Bitcoin in their accounts to third-party lending platforms and use the USDT to borrow cash to purchase cash, which is equivalent to increasing leverage. However, these platforms are not mature in terms of mortgage rate setting and liquidation mechanisms. Users who increase the mortgage rate of assets have a slower transfer speed on the chain. As a result, during this period of rapid decline in the market, a large number of mortgage orders have lower mortgage assets than loans. As a result, the amount of bitcoin out-of-market positions this time was far more than in the previous period of large market volatility, which further exacerbated the selling pressure of the bitcoin spot market.
From 19:00 on the 12th to the early morning of the 13th, the price of Bitcoin hovered in the range of 5800-6200 US dollars, and the market began to prepare for the next stage of the trend.
Second plunge
On the evening of the 12th, the stock markets of mainstream countries in Europe and the United States successively opened and collectively fell, and the stock markets of at least 11 countries, such as the United States, Canada, and the Philippines, melted down. At the close of the morning on the 13th, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S & P 500 Index had the largest single-day percentage decline since the 1987 stock disaster. The Dow closed down about 2352 points, the largest drop in history.
The bad performance of the stock market quickly passed to the currency market. Beginning at 7 o'clock on the 13th, the price of bitcoin plunged from the position of $ 5,800 once again, dropping all the way, and successively fell below $ 5,000 and $ 4,000.
For the rapid decline of the market, many people in the industry believe that the main factor is not only the panic selling of the market, but also the mutual stepping on of contract investors. Weibo blogger "AlbertTheKing" pointed out that most of the long positions in Bitcoin leverage are in the BitMEX perpetual contract market. The long positions caused by the decline in bitcoin prices caused a series of short positions, which in turn caused arbitrage spreads and spot arbitrage. The party rushed in to open multiple orders and sell spot arbitrage at the same time, thinking it was okay. As a result, I did not expect Bitcoin to fall more and more fiercely, and his own arbitrage and long positions also burst. So at first, the leveraged bulls stepped down on each other, and later became the arbitrage party. .
"Fhrp" also pointed out that because BitMEX only has BTC margin, ETH's permanent liquidation also needs to be undertaken by btc. The profit portion of the hedge order cannot be included in the margin, and BTC is not sufficient because of the card being in serious shortage. The exploding warehouse order was opaque, so that no one dared to pick up the corpse later, fearing that it would become a corpse. Of course, the key is the lack of a fusing system, so that the market can slowly wait for liquidity to keep up.
Under the interweaving of many risks, the price of bitcoin is about 10:15. It has fallen below 3,800 US dollars in many exchanges such as Huobi and OKEx, which is 38% lower than the price of 0 on the day and 50.4% lower than 24 hours ago. This is the highest record in the 24-hour drop since the birth of Bitcoin.
Such a precise decline cannot be doubted as the bad taste of the bookmaker behind the exchange, if the bookmaker does exist. Of course, it is not excluded that this situation is due to the tacit understanding among the main market participants, or a purely natural phenomenon.
But judging from objective facts, there is indeed some evidence that the situation is unnatural. After bitcoin hit a low of $ 3,800, its price quickly rose in the next 20 minutes, rising by 59% to $ 5,250, but then fell rapidly. At the turning point of $ 3,800, which is 10:16, the BitMEX trading system, the largest bitcoin exchange in the cryptocurrency industry, suddenly stopped until 10:40.
It can be seen that the time point when the Bitcoin price stopped falling rapidly and stopped rising rapidly was close to the time point when BitMEX went down and returned to normal. This shows that BitMEX has a huge influence on the secondary market, and it also makes a lot of One suspects BitMEX is manipulating the market.
Sam Bankman-Fried, chief executive of Derivatives Exchange FTX, tweeted that he suspects BitMEX may have intentionally closed transactions to prevent further crashes and to avoid using exchange insurance funds. Mining company BitPico also tweeted yesterday, "According to our analysis, BitMEX Research has closed its long position of $ 993 million with its own robots and capital. Today the manipulation of the bitcoin market is caused by an entity and the investigation is ongoing. "
In response to this incident, BitMEX responded that there was a hardware problem with the cloud service provider, and in a subsequent announcement, it was pointed out that the DDoS attack was the real cause of the short-term downtime.
Why the downtime of the BitMEX trading system is difficult to verify, but from its objective impact, its short-term downtime plays a vital role in curbing the further decline in the price of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which has eased investment to a certain extent. The panic sentiment created by this has created space for the rebound and correction of cryptocurrency prices such as Bitcoin.
Sam Bankman-Fried even speculated that if BitMEX did not go offline because of a "hardware problem" this morning (February 13), the price of Bitcoin could fall to zero.
If compared with the traditional financial market, the effect of this BitMEX outage event is quite similar to the "fuse" mechanism of the stock market. Trading is suspended for dozens of minutes at the moment when investor sentiment is most panic, so this outage event Also aroused the emotions of many people in the industry.
"BitMEX has helped the currency circle" melt out, "otherwise the chainless stepping will not know where to fall. After the fuse, everyone calmed down and the market returned to normal. Weibo blogger "Blockchain William" posted a blog saying, "The market is not afraid of falling, and it is not afraid of stepping on it. That is why. This is why the global stock market has melted down because investors panic. It is a bottomless pit. Once out of control, there is no bottom Now. "
Of course, the factors that cause the market situation to reverse are not limited to this. According to the feedback from multiple users on social platforms, BitMEX and Binance's major exchanges forced the short positions of multiple accounts to close positions at 10 o'clock on March 13th, that is, the automatic lightening mechanism was in effect.
According to the BitMEX platform mechanism, when investor contracts are forced to close out, their remaining positions will be taken over by BitMEX's strong closing system. However, if a strong liquidation position cannot be closed in the market, and when the marked price reaches the bankruptcy price, the automatic lightening system will lighten the investor holding the position in the opposite direction, and the order of lightening is determined according to the leverage and profit ratio .
Specifically, due to the sharp fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, a large number of long single-series bursts and the scarcity of market liquidity. In order to control the risk, the platform will automatically place some short orders with high profit ratios and high leverage on the market, increasing market flow. It also avoids the risk to the platform caused by the inability of the short-selling order to be executed in a timely manner.
According to BitMEX's announcement, about 200 positions were automatically closed by the system. And Twitter blogger Edward Morra said, "On BitMEX alone, short positions worth about $ 500 million have been liquidated." If this data is true, it means that BitMEX's strong liquidation operation has brought more than 5 to the contract market. The market price of 100 million US dollars has a significant positive effect on the market that is being sold out.
However, as a compensation, BitMEX also stated that it would contact each damaged user and compensate them according to the maximum potential profit that the investor obtained during the automatic liquidation.
In any case, through the operation of exchanges such as BitMEX, the price of bitcoin has entered a recovery channel, and it is still hovering at the $ 5,000 mark, while driving the entire cryptocurrency market to pick up.
After this thrilling 24 hours of bitcoin, the ideal "halving market" has disappeared. The real and brutal "halving market" is coming. Perhaps many investors and investment institutions have expressed their confidence in the crypto assets represented by bitcoin. The understanding will change in this regard, and the confidence of the entire industry needs to be rebuilt. This depends on the application value of bitcoin to be deepened.
submitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85% - Stellar Victorious

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85% - Stellar Victorious
The end is here.
tl;dr - I am down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151. Best performer of 2018 is Stellar, down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
Click here for full blog post complete with charts, graphs, and charts of graphs.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos throughout the year, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. It began as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), but I've moved away from that terminology as things have changed quite a bit since January 1st, 2018 (plus the term "Index Fund" seems to bring out the shills trying to sell their own Crypto Index Fund product).
My experiment is less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the entire market- or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018 crypto space. I'm trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment 365 days. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

MONTH/EPISODE TWELVE AND FINAL TALLY - Down 85% in 2018

https://preview.redd.it/d67ec8cg0t821.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=da298dda0431a69ab560b2e8d6e3b15e0e7f9763
December was a quiet month for the experiment - not many fireworks to end the year. Although my portfolio did reach yet another record loss at -85%, it only ticked down one percentage point from the previous month. For comparison, the Dow Jones lost over -6% in December.
Finally tally for the year: I am now down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151.
December Winners - It was a nice change to see a bit of green on my spreadsheet for the last month of the year. Winners: Ethereum and IOTAup an impressive 39% and 30% respectively. Litecoin ticked up 5% as well.
December Losers - Stellar had an uncharacteristically rough month, losing about 1/3 of its value in December. More predictably NEM, which has been a regular cellar-dweller for many of my monthly reports, fared poorly, down -15% in December.

FINAL RESULTS for 2018 – Stellar wins the experiment followed by Bitcoin. Cardano and Bitcoin Cash in virtual tie for worst performance of the year.

Even though Stellar had a rough December, it still ended the experiment solidly in first place followed fairly closely by Bitcoin. This is not a surprise to anyone who's been following the experiment - Stellar has been consistently one of the best performing cryptos each time I report.
Stellar's victory is definitely Pyrrhic, as "winning" 2018 meant losing -66% of its value since January 1st, 2018. Second place Bitcoin? Down -71% on the year.
If that's victory, what's defeat?
Defeat is Cardano and Bitcoin Cash, virtually tied at -94% on the year. For the record, Cardano did slightly worse: my $100 invested in Cardano is now worth $5.97 and my $100 invested in Bitcoin Cash $6.32.
Cardano and Bitcoin Cash are closely followed by NEM and Dash, and all four are members of the "Down Over -90% Club." IOTA's strong December helped it narrowly avoid this distinction as it is now down "only" -89% for the year.
Summary: best performer of 2018 is down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
I'll just let that sink in for a while.
In terms of movement, there was a lot of it: 40% of the cryptos that started the year in the Top Ten have now dropped out. Here's a chart:
https://preview.redd.it/5p04wxbm0t821.png?width=328&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ddfb3a4f46aa196e56e3b93d4968bc91400900b
Interestingly, the Top Four ended up in the same top positions after 365 days.
On the other hand, NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Cardano are Top Ten dropouts - they have been replaced by EOS (now at #5), Tether (currently at #8), Bitcoin SV (currently at #9), and Tron (currently at #10).

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

https://preview.redd.it/clzti39p0t821.png?width=439&format=png&auto=webp&s=13bcd89a9dc2ace72a95edcd6669295aec589c72
December was basically flat, as the total market cap for crypto hovered right around $130B. A nice little pause from four consecutive record low month-end points since the end of August.
Final figure: the total market cap for crypto dropped -77% in 2018.
Looking back, March was the worst month of the year in terms of both overall amount and percentage loss. Best month-end figure was end of January at $485B.
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $500B: January
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $400B: May
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $300B: June
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $200B: November

Bitcoin dominance:

https://preview.redd.it/1xfbsjas0t821.png?width=290&format=png&auto=webp&s=3c2f8bc82402dec6bda2046b62e5da0a3794b273
Bitcoin dominance dropped slightly from the month-end record highs at the end of October and November, but it's basically been holding steady since the end of August, right around the 50% mark. Too early to tell if the slight drop from 53% to 51% Bitcoin dominance from November to December indicates that buyers are looking at more risky alt-coins, we'll have to wait a bit to see if/how that plays out.
As we've seen this throughout the experiment, when the overall market dives, BTC's dominance increases.
  • 33% Bitcoin dominance at the end of January was the lowest month-end point of the year
  • 53.6% Bitcoin dominance at the end of October was the highest month-end point of the year

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

https://preview.redd.it/vbhh3chw0t821.png?width=281&format=png&auto=webp&s=36430e9b960efc60de2fa286a2265b816cbc0560
If I wrapped up my experiment and cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return $151.81, down -85%.
  • Lowest Top Ten portfolio value: December
  • Highest Top Ten portfolio value: January

Implications/Observations:

The numbers back up what all who were even remotely paying attention to crypto this year noticed: 2018 was not 2017. Beginning 2018 at all time highs put this experiment in a difficult position from the start and I was never able to come close to just breaking even - my "best" month was end of January where I was "only" down -20%.
That said, buying mid-January when prices were even higher would have been worse - hard to imagine considering my Top Ten buys on New Years Day have seen a -85% drop - but yes, it could have been even worse.
Congratulations to Stellar who outperformed its peers in 2018 and was consistently among the monthly top performers.
Focusing solely on holding the Top Ten was a losing strategy. While the overall market is down -77% from January, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -85% over the same period of time. At no point in the experiment has this investment strategy worked: the initial Top Ten continue to under-perform compared to the market overall. The 8% difference is significant, but it has shrunk a bit - it was as wide as a 12% difference at one point during the year (September).
I also tracked the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. After a relatively strong year, the S & P 500 tanked in December, finishing down -6.2% on the year. Had I redirected my $1k investment to the S&P, I would have lost about -$62 on the year.
https://preview.redd.it/mxk3jehy0t821.png?width=384&format=png&auto=webp&s=116d5e2f23d8b3255cb5eea1a75655ea9091bcba

Conclusion:

Tough year for crypto, to say the least. The year end question is the same one we've been asking all year: is there more room to fall or have we finally hit the bottom for crypto?

Thanks and Future of the Experiment:

Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful.
As for the future of the experiment, after receiving some good suggestions, I've decided to do the following:
  1. There's no way I'm selling now at such a loss. Therefore, I'll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten cryptos of 2018 as I've been doing.
  2. I've also decided to repeat the experiment with the Top Ten cryptos of 2019. On the 1st of January 2019, I purchased $100 worth of the Top Ten: Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Stellar, Tether, Litecoin, Bitcoin SV, and Tron.
I honestly wasn't very enthusiastic to buy $100 worth of some of these coins, but I think it will be interesting to compare the Top Ten of 2018 with the Top Ten of 2019 to see how they fare. I'll share the results regularly - I'm aiming for monthly, as I did in 2018.
So - I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Stellar Victorious - EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85%

Stellar Victorious - EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85%
The end is here.
tl;dr - I am down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151. Best performer of 2018 is Stellar, down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
Click here for full blog post complete with charts, graphs, and charts of graphs.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos throughout the year, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. It began as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), but I've moved away from that terminology as things have changed quite a bit since January 1st, 2018 (plus the term "Index Fund" seems to bring out the shills trying to sell their own Crypto Index Fund product).
My experiment is less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the entire market- or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018 crypto space. I'm trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment 365 days. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

MONTH/EPISODE TWELVE AND FINAL TALLY - Down 85% in 2018

https://preview.redd.it/jx4d8u662t821.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a6cbd527492057f939c39f55c0697c454aa3847
December was a quiet month for the experiment - not many fireworks to end the year. Although my portfolio did reach yet another record loss at -85%, it only ticked down one percentage point from the previous month. For comparison, the Dow Jones lost over -6% in December.
Finally tally for the year: I am now down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151.
December Winners - It was a nice change to see a bit of green on my spreadsheet for the last month of the year. Winners: Ethereum and IOTAup an impressive 39% and 30% respectively. Litecoin ticked up 5% as well.
December Losers - Stellar had an uncharacteristically rough month, losing about 1/3 of its value in December. More predictably NEM, which has been a regular cellar-dweller for many of my monthly reports, fared poorly, down -15% in December.

FINAL RESULTS for 2018 – Stellar wins the experiment followed by Bitcoin. Cardano and Bitcoin Cash in virtual tie for worst performance of the year.

Even though Stellar had a rough December, it still ended the experiment solidly in first place followed fairly closely by Bitcoin. This is not a surprise to anyone who's been following the experiment - Stellar has been consistently one of the best performing cryptos each time I report.
Stellar's victory is definitely Pyrrhic, as "winning" 2018 meant losing -66% of its value since January 1st, 2018. Second place Bitcoin? Down -71% on the year.
If that's victory, what's defeat?
Defeat is Cardano and Bitcoin Cash, virtually tied at -94% on the year. For the record, Cardano did slightly worse: my $100 invested in Cardano is now worth $5.97 and my $100 invested in Bitcoin Cash $6.32.
Cardano and Bitcoin Cash are closely followed by NEM and Dash, and all four are members of the "Down Over -90% Club." IOTA's strong December helped it narrowly avoid this distinction as it is now down "only" -89% for the year.
Summary: best performer of 2018 is down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
I'll just let that sink in for a while.
In terms of movement, there was a lot of it: 40% of the cryptos that started the year in the Top Ten have now dropped out. Here's a chart:
https://preview.redd.it/zvlgkpd72t821.png?width=328&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d58ec97bfb3c4b742adc30d1244695fbeaf5f64
Interestingly, the Top Four ended up in the same top positions after 365 days.
On the other hand, NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Cardano are Top Ten dropouts - they have been replaced by EOS (now at #5), Tether (currently at #8), Bitcoin SV (currently at #9), and Tron (currently at #10).

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

https://preview.redd.it/8w75j6f82t821.png?width=439&format=png&auto=webp&s=c27789f5c6dd3e946bf5c8e29bf285db300c9b41
December was basically flat, as the total market cap for crypto hovered right around $130B. A nice little pause from four consecutive record low month-end points since the end of August.
Final figure: the total market cap for crypto dropped -77% in 2018.
Looking back, March was the worst month of the year in terms of both overall amount and percentage loss. Best month-end figure was end of January at $485B.
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $500B: January
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $400B: May
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $300B: June
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $200B: November

Bitcoin dominance:

https://preview.redd.it/jptpvni92t821.png?width=290&format=png&auto=webp&s=43070ae9fe03aaf451589758825cdc1528432fb6
Bitcoin dominance dropped slightly from the month-end record highs at the end of October and November, but it's basically been holding steady since the end of August, right around the 50% mark. Too early to tell if the slight drop from 53% to 51% Bitcoin dominance from November to December indicates that buyers are looking at more risky alt-coins, we'll have to wait a bit to see if/how that plays out.
As we've seen this throughout the experiment, when the overall market dives, BTC's dominance increases.
  • 33% Bitcoin dominance at the end of January was the lowest month-end point of the year
  • 53.6% Bitcoin dominance at the end of October was the highest month-end point of the year

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

https://preview.redd.it/rcxjkfra2t821.png?width=281&format=png&auto=webp&s=93cdceaeff7fe5b9c7ab5aa04fdc3f1a6f03d1bf
If I wrapped up my experiment and cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return $151.81, down -85%.
  • Lowest Top Ten portfolio value: December
  • Highest Top Ten portfolio value: January

Implications/Observations:

The numbers back up what all who were even remotely paying attention to crypto this year noticed: 2018 was not 2017. Beginning 2018 at all time highs put this experiment in a difficult position from the start and I was never able to come close to just breaking even - my "best" month was end of January where I was "only" down -20%.
That said, buying mid-January when prices were even higher would have been worse - hard to imagine considering my Top Ten buys on New Years Day have seen a -85% drop - but yes, it could have been even worse.
Congratulations to Stellar who outperformed its peers in 2018 and was consistently among the monthly top performers.
Focusing solely on holding the Top Ten was a losing strategy. While the overall market is down -77% from January, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -85% over the same period of time. At no point in the experiment has this investment strategy worked: the initial Top Ten continue to under-perform compared to the market overall. The 8% difference is significant, but it has shrunk a bit - it was as wide as a 12% difference at one point during the year (September).
I also tracked the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. After a relatively strong year, the S & P 500 tanked in December, finishing down -6.2% on the year. Had I redirected my $1k investment to the S&P, I would have lost about -$62 on the year.
https://preview.redd.it/cvtvzrvb2t821.png?width=384&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc50928366796b4a48812034e2a7b1fff5997652

Conclusion:

Tough year for crypto, to say the least. The year end question is the same one we've been asking all year: is there more room to fall or have we finally hit the bottom for crypto?

Thanks and Future of the Experiment:

Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful.
As for the future of the experiment, after receiving some good suggestions, I've decided to do the following:
  1. There's no way I'm selling now at such a loss. Therefore, I'll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten cryptos of 2018 as I've been doing.
  2. I've also decided to repeat the experiment with the Top Ten cryptos of 2019. On the 1st of January 2019, I purchased $100 worth of the Top Ten: Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Stellar, Tether, Litecoin, Bitcoin SV, and Tron.
I honestly wasn't very enthusiastic to buy $100 worth of some of these coins, but I think it will be interesting to compare the Top Ten of 2018 with the Top Ten of 2019 to see how they fare. I'll share the results regularly - I'm aiming for monthly, as I did in 2018.
So - I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to Stellar [link] [comments]

WSB101 - THE BOOK OF YOLO: BEGINNERS GUIDE TO TRADING LIKE A DEGENERATE AND EVERYTHING WSB

The Book of Yolo: COMPLETE GUIDE TO WSB
The goal of this is to actually create something that all of you WSB newbies can read - because we’re all tired of seeing the endless wave of uninformed and unavoidable stupidity from those who have never touched the stock market. CALLING ALL NEWFAGS AND NORMIES.
If you can’t read, GFY now.
Now that we will be on the popular section of reddit, this has become pertinent. WSB can't avoid newcomers, so we might as well explain how the clock ticks here. This one is for you all.
This is to serve as a reference what values we hold, what instruments we use, and as a general place to educated the uneducated.
First off, this is the LEAST helpful stock market-based community for newcomers. Sarcastic answers are the only thing of true value here. It isn't a place to learn, but a place to plan out where you will dock your yacht. Newcomers are usually berated upon asking the inevitable stupid questions that they could learn slowly from reading here, or just using a damn search engine. Instead of embarrassing yourself here, you now have the opportunity to read this and get what we’re all rambling about.
This will help you understand what to expect if you make the decision to undertake a WSB style trading career, so you can stay here and contribute to the yolo lifestyle or otherwise GFY.
I will edit in any suggestions that our frequenting users or mods want to add to this as well.
To begin: Here are our topics for WSB101
-Basics (Equities/Stocks)
;
-ETF's
;
-Options
;
-Futures Trading
;
-SubCulture
;
BASICS/EQUTIES Skip if you understand basic stock stuff
Okay, so what is an equity/stock? An equity is essentially what you’d think of as your “vanilla” trading tool. They move up or down depending on market forces, and can range from pennies to thousands of dollars per share. To explain how stocks work, let's define a few terms.
Volume: The number of shares of stock traded during a particular time period, normally measured in average daily trading volume.
Spread: The difference between the bid and the ask price
Bid Price: The current price in which someone wants to buy at
Ask Price:The current price in which someone wants to sell at
Volatility: The WSB favorite. Volatility is referring to the price movements of a stock as a whole. The higher the volatility, the more the stock is moving up or down. Highly volatile stocks are ones with extreme daily up and down movements and wide intraday trading ranges.
Margin: A margin account lets a person borrow money (take out a loan essentially) from a broker to purchase an investment. The difference between the amount of the loan, and the price of the securities, is called the margin. Margin is one of WSB’s popular instruments of wealth and destruction.
Dividend: This is a portion of a company’s earnings that is paid to shareholders, or people that own hat company’s stock, on a quarterly or annual basis. Not all companies do this.
PPS: Acronym for “Price per Share”
Moving Average: A stock’s average price-per-share during a specific period of time.
Bullish: Expecting the stock to go up
Bearish: Expecting the stock to go down
Any raised hands can redirect themselves to here:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/082614/how-stock-market-works.asp?ad=dirN&qo=investopediaSiteSearch&qsrc=0&o=40186
Now that these terms are defined, let's move into the details of why this is even useful. Most people know what a stock is, but how and why stocks move is a different story. The stock market is essentially a big virtualization of supply and demand - meaning that usually high positive volume creates upwards movement in the PPS, where high negative volume does the opposite. This creates a trader’s opportunity; Generally, the most effective time to buy or sell is where the candlesticks (volume data) are thinning out. When you are ready to take an entry point or execute an exit point, waiting till the volatility (candlesticks) thin out is one method to give you best trade possible.
WSB FAVORITE EQUITIES: Of many equities, WSB favors the riskier ones - but avoiding penny stocks is a policy.
AMD - CEO Lisa Su, Next Gen Processors, chips, graphics. It’s the gamers gambit. Up roughly 1400% as of 2/7/2017 since WSB first mentioned it
NVDA - AMD’s sister? Mother? Daddy? Who knows. NVDA has been a sexy semiconductor leader. Is up 400% since gaining traction on WSB.
FNMA / pfds - Mnunchin, Trump, Big fat fannies. Get your self deep in the fannie. We all want it. WSB 10 bagger candidate for reforming the housing market. WSB holds a large cumulative position that can be seen below. Also a good read is the beginners guide to FNMA. Any post by u/NOVACPA is very often VERY informative on FMNA/pfds.
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/5oissp/results_wsb_fnmafmcc_holdings
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/5t7gba/beginngers_guide_to_fnma_fmcc_read_this_before/
ARRY - A biotech champion that prevailed after a lot of failures and huge losses in the biotech sector. Dark times for WSB. Up ~300% since getting traction on the subreddit.
TWTR - WSB likes to buy put option contracts on her. Exemplary of a social media platform that is unable to monetize itself.
TSLA - Maybe not unanimously a favorite, but loved for it’s sexy volatility, Elon Musk, and ridiculously expensive options.
GILD - A Shkreli pump and dump? The greatest large cap pharma recovery of all time? Who knows. Martin took the time to make a post on this reddit and it is up $5 dollars since.
ETF'S
Welcome to the world of investing made easy. Exchange traded funds (etfs) are devices that can be traded like stocks, but often track the value of many companies by investing in their listed assets accordingly. Specifically, An ETF, or exchange traded fund, is a marketable security that tracks an index, a commodity, bonds, or a basket of assets like an index fund. Unlike mutual funds, an ETF trades like a common stock on a stock exchange. ETFs experience price changes throughout the day as they are bought and sold. ETFs typically have higher daily liquidity and lower fees than mutual fund shares, making them an attractive alternative for individual investors.
ETF’s come in beautiful and delicious varieties, often with a BEAR form and a BULL form of each; but the most delicious to WSB are the 3x etf’s. A 3x ETF is one in which the underlying movement of the ETF is leveraged 3:1. Meaning for every movement within the underlying index or stocks, the 3x ETF moves well.... 3x as much..
WSB FAVORITE AND USEFUL ETF’S:
JNUG - 3x Gold Miner Bull - A hit or miss, has extreme intraday movements and essentially tracks GDX (gold miner’s index). Jnug will usually move with a pretty strong correlation to gold, which is affected by the mentioning of rate hikes (negatively), movement of the US dollar (inversely), uncertainty (positively), and supply and demand.
NUGT - Jnug with a different price tag
JDST - The inverse 3x etf of JNUG - or the bear etf. It does almost exactly the opposite movements of JNUG by the tick. Moves for the same reasons, but obviously opposite directions.
DUST - Jdst with a different price tag.
UGAZ - Natural Gas 3x Bull ETF - essentially tracks the price value of the commodity Natural Gas, but more specifically the S&P GSCI Natural Gas Index ER. The index comprises futures contracts on a single commodity and is calculated according to the methodology of the S&P GSCI Index. Natural gas is most affected by Weather temperature conditions (use your brain), petroleum prices, and broader economic conditions.
DGAZ - Inverse of UGAZ
UWT - Crude Oil Bull 3x ETF - extreme intraday movements, closely follows the price of oil. More specifically, it tracks futures. UWT seeks to replicate, net of expenses, three times of the S&P GSCI® Crude Oil Index ER. The index tracks a hypothetical position in the nearest-to-expiration NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contract, which is rolled each month into the futures contract expiring in the next month. The value of the index fluctuates with changes in the price of the relevant NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures contracts.
DWT - Inverse of UWT
FAS - Financial Bull, specifically FAS seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the performance of the Russell 1000 ® Financial Services Index. The fund creates long positions by investing at least 80% of its assets in the securities that comprise the Russell 1000 ® Financial Services Index and/or financial instruments that provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the index. Can be used when bullish on US financial services - so banks, lenders, etc.
FAZ - Inverse of FAS
UPRO - S&P500 Bull 3x ETF, essentially tracks the S&P500 and multiplies it’s returns by 3x.
BRZU - Tracks Brazil (in its most basic form). It creates long positions in the MSCI Brazil 25/50 Index.
LABU - Tracks the Biotech sector, or specifically 300% of the performance of the S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index ("index"). It should be noted that LABU has doubled since just before the election of Donald Trump.
LABD - Inverse of LABU
RUSL - roughly creates 300% of the performance of the MVIS Russia Index.
RUSS - Inverse of RUSL
SPY - Tracks the S&P500, but is not 3x.
OPTIONS:
Alright, so half you are going to understand this, and half of you are not. Pull up an options chain now on any stock (penny stocks and specific stocks do not have chains because of their market cap). Options are truly the ultimate way to achieve maximum risk/reward.
An option is a contract that gives the buyer the right to buy or sell 100 shares of a stock at a certain price, on a certain date. This concept makes options a commodity themselves.
KEY TERMS:
A CALL - is the right to buy. Buying calls is taking a bullish position in its most extreme form.
A PUT - is the right to sell.
The underlying - is the stock that the option is covering i.e. AAPL, GOOG, AMZN
Strike Price - the price at which a put or call option can be exercised.
ITM, In the money - In the money means that a call option's strike price is below the market price of the underlying asset or that the strike price of a put option is above the market price of the underlying asset. Being in the money does not mean you will profit, it just means the option is worth exercising.
OTM, Out of the money - a call option with a strike price that is higher than the market price of the underlying asset, or a put option with a strike price that is lower than the market price of the underlying asset.
ATM - At the money - Strike price at the same price as the underlying
Expiration - Expiries for options are every friday of every week usually, with exceptions such as every month, or every other day - depending on the underlying. SPY and SPX are great examples of very active option chains with expiries every other day. On the expiry date or any time before (with american options), an option can be, but doesn’t have to be exercised, meaning the holder of the option can use it to buy or sell shares of the underlying stock at the strike price. Most people on WSB do not exercise the contracts, but merely flip them for increases in value as the underlying moves.
For example, when AAPL was at 120 before its earnings report, Joe Shmoe Yolo buys 10 FEB 17th CALLS at strike 127 for .60 , each. Now .60 cents is really 60 dollars each, because the contract is multiplied by 100 (the right to 100 shares). In total, Joe Shmoe Yolo spends $600 dollars + commision on this trade. The next day, AAPL leaps to 130 upon great news. These same option contracts are now worth 3.50 each. $350 dollars per contract, times ten contracts is $3500 dollars. Joe Shmoe Yolo just turned $600 into $3500 dollars. MAGIC. Spoiler alert: Joe Shmoe Yolo was me.
That same Joe Shmoe later buys FEB 17th XOM calls at 90, hoping for similar results. However, XOM ends up never reaching anywhere close to the strike price, and the options expire worthless. Get it?
Now what determines the pricing of options?
OPTION PRICING:
Below is sourced from investopedia
Intrinsic Value: The intrinsic value is the actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This value may or may not be the same as the current market value. Additionally, intrinsic value is primarily used in options pricing to indicate the amount an option is in the money.
Time Value: Time Value = Option Price - Intrinsic Value. The more time an option has until it expires, the greater the chance it will end up in the money. The time component of an option decays exponentially. The actual derivation of the time value of an option is a fairly complex equation. As a general rule, an option will lose one-third of its value during the first half of its life and two-thirds during the second half of its life. This is an important concept for securities investors because the closer you get to expiration, the more of a move in the underlying security is needed to impact the price of the option. Time value is basically the risk premium that the option seller requires to provide the option buyer the right to buy/sell the stock up to the date the option expires. It is like an insurance premium of the option; the higher the risk, the higher the cost to buy the option. Makes sense, right?
Time value is determined by the expiration date. An expiration date in derivatives is the last day that an options contract is valid. When investors buy options, the contracts gives them the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell the assets at a predetermined price, called a strike price, within a given time period, which is on or before the expiration date. If an investor chooses not to exercise that right, the option expires and becomes worthless, and the investor loses the money paid to buy it.
Volatility:
In an options pricing, you see IV. This stands for implied volatility. The higher that is, the higher the options will be priced Volatility is the extent to which the return of the underlying asset will fluctuate between now and the option's expiration. Volatility, as expressed as a percentage coefficient within option-pricing formulas, arises from daily trading activities. How volatility is measured will affect the value of the coefficient used.
Decaying Nature of Options:
Decay refers to derivative trading (i.e. options). When you sell or buy a call/put (using those two for simplicity purposes) you don't get an infinite time frame to make your dreams come true. Time is your enemy; the further out the expiration date, the less time decay there is. Time decay really hits the worst the week of expiration. Sound confusing? Say you're buying options of the stock WSB (I hope you're seeing what I did there) - and the option costs $1, the expiration is this Friday. Say today is Monday. You buy a call expecting WSB to take you to the moon and beyond. Each day the stock doesn't move closer to your strike price or remains stagnant/drops, you lose value on your option + the time decay. Meaning if it finishes closer to your strike price, your option could be worthless because of that time decay. Questions? Ask away.
A great example of these factors in action is TSLA.
TSLA’s options are among the most expensive for companies in its price range, why?
An in the money TSLA call expiring this week is worth around $1100 per contract. Insanely expensive. But for a reason. TSLA has extreme intraday movements and calls have an implied volatility of 40.92%. Which is fairly high. In addition to that, it holds high intrinsic value / price per share, and a week of time value.
-Futures 101 - The Ultimate YOLO Guide (thanks to u/IncendiaryGames)
Okay, a lot of you have been YOLOing on faggot delights on SPY options. How would you like to trade something with the same or more leverage, 1.0 delta, and no time premium costs? Have you considered futures? What are futures? Unlike options, futures is a contract where both the buyer and seller is obligated to perform the transaction by the expiration. Conversely, in options, only the seller is obligated to perform. That means you can lose more than your investment. Originally they were used by farmers to sell future crops early and guarantee some amount of sales. Since then futures have expanded not just to commodities but currency and equity indices like the S&P 500. Why the heck would I want to trade futures? Here are the advantages: Leverage $5k is the margin requirement for most contracts. For example with the E-mini S&P 500 with 5k you're trading $120k worth of stuff. 1 contract = 500 spy shares. Some brokers offer intraday daytrading margin rates too - TD Ameritrade is 25% of the overnight margin rate($1,250.) Some brokers go as low as $500 an /ES future. SPAN Margin If 24x overnight leverage and 240x day trade leverage didn't give you a hard on there is also SPAN margin, which is like portfolio margin on steroids. The beauty of SPAN margin is you don't need a $125k+ account to be eligible. SPAN will greatly reduce your margin requirements if you hold uncorrelated or inversely correlated positions (up to an 80% discount, here is a list of groups that give discounts) and if you hedge with options. Hedge with the right option or asset and now you have up to 500x day trading margin. 23/7 and day trading Ever get in and out of an equity only to have your broker yell at you to stop doing that or deposit $25k? There is no pattern day trading restrictions on futures. Feel free to day trade and blow up your account as often as you want! You can also trade 23 hours a day. Get trading on how the S&P 500 index will react to news from China right away. Taxes No matter how long or how short you hold you always get taxed under the 60/40 rule. 60% of your profit from futures will be taxed as a long term gain and 40% will be taxed as short term gain. No wash sales. Trade your hearts out. Just remember holding past Dec 31st will treat you as if you closed all your positions that day and you'll be taxed on unrealized gains. Long/Short No need to pay interest or borrow shares as being short a future contract is being a writer, just like an options writer. Options Of course there are options. What fun would it be without options? Unlike stock options each contract gives different number of future contracts. Research what you're trading.
Ok. I'm convinced. I want to strat trading futures! What are some good strategies?
YOLO Strategies
Swing trading Trying to guess/predict/ride sudden market momentum. A low volume average day in the S&P 500 (/ES) for one contract can swing +- $500. Get it right and you can see a huge appreciation of value. /ES is usually highly liquid during regular hours with average volume of 1 million trades and usually bid-ask spreads of one tick. One approach is to buy or short in your direction and put in a stop loss to an amount you're comfortable to lose (say $200.) Since it's so liquid you'll likely be filled at or near your stop loss during the day if your trade goes against you. If you can guess the direction 50% of the time and have trades like this: trade 1 - gain $800 trade 2 - lose $200 Then you may profit over the time period. If you have a 50% chance of being wrong and losing $200 or 50% chance of being right and gaining $800 then over time you'll gain more than you lose. Also, since the present value of your futures contract is included in your margin calculation then if it goes strongly in your favor your position can quickly grow to cover its own margin and you can let it ride for a while. You'll want to be sure you enter a combo buy/short order along with a stop loss order simultaneously, like this for Thinkorswim. Futures can move suddenly and a sudden movement can make you lose a ton of money. Exploiting outdated SPAN margin guidelines There are several out of date correlations between popular futures like oil and say things like wheat that SPAN gives you margin credits on. Take whatever position you want in oil (/cl) then take the opposite in something that doesn't move much day to day with less volatility such as /w (wheat)) and your /cl and /w positions will get a 75% credit, giving you 50% more buying power on crude oil. (2 positions * .25 = 0.5). Trade your heart out on the more volatile future then when you're done close your safer future pair. SPAN is constantly changing but such a complex system definitely has its exploits. Automated/algorithmic trading For you programmer geeks out there it's really hard to algorithmic trade on small accounts due to pattern day trading rules and economies of scale with broker fees. Futures is probably the best way to get your feet wet. Join us on /algotrading if you want to explore more!
Boring safer strategies
I'm including these for completeness but these belong on /investing. Scalping With high frequency trading scalping is less guaranteed. Basically scalping is using tiny momentum as usually there are small micro patterns in futures buying and selling activity where it will rise or fall a couple of ticks. Since the notional value of each tick is $12.5 it's profitable for retail investors and small accounts to act as a market maker after fees at the smallest bid-ask spread possible. Spreads Just like you can trade spreads in options, you can trade calendar spreads in futures. Futures have contracts with different expiration dates and the prices are different for each month of expiration based on the market's expectations. You can go long or short the near month expiration and the opposite for the far month. This will hedge out any sudden market moves as that would likely affect both months. Bull markets in general tend to increase the price of the near month faster than the far month. Basically with a spread trade you're making a long term bet on bull or bear for the underlying future. Pairs trading You can go long in one future say the dow jones (/ym) and short the S&P 500 index and profit off the relative growth. This is a hedged trade as any market ups or downs will likely affect both positions with the same % value. For the past 180 days /ym - /es has been really profitable. Even if you don't do a full perfect pairs trade it is still a great option to reduce the leverage too on whatever index future you're trading so you can stay in longer or overnight. Interest rate and optimal leverage plays Since the $5k investment is equal to $120k of the S&P 500 index currently then you'll likely beat out the market by buying one future contract and putting $115k in safe treasuries or bonds or uncorrelated assets. Some people choose to leverage their stock portfolio and you can get the exact leverage ratio of liquid investments to future ratios. In probability theory the max leverage you can gain is determined by the Kelly Criterion which modeling shows indicates the S&P 500 index to be leveraged to 1.40x. Yes, you could do the same with options but even on SPY deep in the money call leaps are illiquid and have a time premium. Even today they are so deep ITM that the options you would need to use have 0 open interest and a bid-ask spread of $5 per share (so $500 per contract.) You'd need ~5 contracts per 120k so you're already eating $2.5k/$120k - 2% interest rate a year for that leverage. SPX isn't better, it's bid ask is 22 so you'd be eating $2.2k/$120k - 1.83% interest rate. It's doubtful you won't get much past the ask as its only market makers providing liquidity and guess what the market maker will do if you buy/sell the option? They will hedge with the underlying futures until their minimum profit is the risk free interest rate. Hedging Going long and short in various non correlated or negatively correlated assets to seek out a high sharpe ratio and have a higher risk free return that is market neutral. Basic hedge fund stuff. The variety and price efficiency of futures makes things pretty attractive in this area.
SUBCULTURE
Wallstreetbets is a community that has become infamous for the most wild west, moon or cardboard box trades on the planet earth. WSB is a place where you can take out thousand dollar loans, refinance your homes, cash advance all of your credit cards only to put it all on JNUG, and we will still love you. Your mother won't. Your father will never understand your spectrum of autism, but we will always love you. It is a uniquely beautiful community focused on praising its biggest losers as much as its biggest winners. To begin on the subculture, we should define some key moments in the sub's history.
HISTORY: (As made by u/digadiga) + my additions
2012: Jartek [+1] creates /wallstreetbets, and word slowly starts to ooze out. 2013: americanpegasus discovers pennies. AP has seen the light, and is a penny stock evangelist. Jartek & AP have an epic options vs pennies battle - they both lose a couple of hundred bucks, but we are entertained, and WSB is officially born. AP blows up his retirement, swears off pennies and moves onto bitcoins. 2014: fscomeau [+3] discovers options. He repeatedly bets five figures on AAPL calls before earnings. FS claims a supernatural clairvoyance of AAPL. FS then posts about his chest pains and ER visits. He finally suffers an epic loss. Is he dead? Is he alive? Is he is mother? Is he banned? Who cares? 2015: Photos from the 3rd annual meetup are posted. Where a bunch of dudes hang out on the romantic beaches of Guerrero Mexico. In a completely unrelated event, the wsb banner is changed to thousands of ejaculating dicks. Modpocalypse occurs. Hundreds of random users are added as moderators for a few months. None of the new mods can change the CSS. The constant whining about how "wsb isn't what it used to be" continues. Someone attempts to show how selling covered calls is idiot proof, but gets lazy, bets all six figures on Apple, and suffers significant losses. Robinhood gets popular. Should you buy one share of AMZN or one share of GOOGL? Who gives a fuck. 2016: Everyone starts saying "go fuck yourself." Except me. Because I am what I am. And if you don't like it, you can all go fuck yourselves. u/World_Chaos performs one of the more impressive yolo's of the sub, starting with 900 dollars, and turning it into 55k. https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/414blh/yofuckinglo_900_to_55k_in_12_days/?ref=share&ref_source=link 2017: u/fscomeau preforms what he calls "The Final Yolo", a 300k trade against AAPL before earnings (that I, u/thor303456 inversed), supposedly supposed to net fscomeau 2.5 million or so, in which he will finally stop trading. FSC is featured on several market related articles and newspapers, showing up on yahoo, etc. Later we find proof during his livestream of AAPL earnings that he was paper trading. Even later, FSC writes a near 200 page book called "Wolfie Has Fallen" describing how he trolled the entire internet, some following him into that AAPL trade. Martin Shkreli visits the sub and proclaims that GILD pharma is worth over $100 a share and is deeply undervalued.
KEY FIGURES:
Donald J Trump - He is the Marmalade Manchurian, the Tangerine Tycoon, and our spray tan Stalin. Unbelievable night of election. WSB demographics show a primarily capitalist and right wing (or at least joking to be so) point of view, and thus we are generally pro trump. In actuality though, WSB is focused on pro-market, which Trump happens to be.
u/Jartek - Founder of the sub, original yoloer. Believe he has retired from reddit for the most part. Mostly inactive.
u/Fscomeau - The Canadian as some call him, and perhaps one of the most profound internet trolls of 2016-2017. A French-Canadian trader who deals with mostly options. The man has been called "The Great Inverse", and for a good reason. Nearly all of the trades or statements he made on WSB were completely wrong or mostly wrong. Truly the strongest technical indicator.
Martin Shkreli - An idol to many WSBers, Martin stands as the master of the biotech sector. A very debated character for very stupid reasons. Martin regularly tweets about the stock market, occasionally does a youtube channel, and livestreams fairly regularly.
u/theycallme1 - Educated trader, and mod of WSB. Roasts people often and roasts them good. Ask him the questions that aren't stupid. One of the most active mods.
u/world_chaos - some fucking college student with some real net worth. Sits on 100k or so (needs verification), and was an inspiring yoloer to all, with his 900 to 55k yolo with options.
Lingo, Terminology, and Nomenclature:
The Faggots Delights - Truly the most suicidal, yet clearest shot to the moon. This term is usually used to define either weekly, or daily option plays on the SPY/SPX. Some users trade them very profitably, such as u/MRPguy and many in the past.
Cuck - Truly the worst thing you could be. A cuck is a man who likes watching his wife/girlfriend fuck other guys. Weak, spineless, and a term often throw around here.
The YOLO - You only live once. This is something that is, and should be realized as undeniably true. Why are you sitting on a 5k emergency fund that is making you less interest in a year than what I just made in 10 minutes? Why haven't you used all of the credit on your 5 credit cards or used your testicles as collateral for a loan yet? YOLO or YOLOING is as much a psychological decision to embrace absurdism, and win with everything you have while risking it all. Yolo is what it means to be a WSB trader.
Bagholding or a Bagholder - When you're stuck with the most ass trade of your life, because you know it'll go back up. A bagholder is the 59 year old guy at the grocery store who won't quit his Job because he knows he only has to wait another year until he gets a return on his investment (of his life). Anyone holding SUNEQ is the definition of a bagholder.
Autists - Something we embrace, something we call each other, something we all are. Autism isn't used in an offensive way as much as it is a generally accepted term that defines us. The best traders have autism because of their distance from emotion. I bet you never made it to this part of the reading because you're such a damn autist.
Tendies - Tendies are what you get after you make a small amount of money. "I SOLD AMD TODAY FOR A $13 DOLLAR PROFIT, GOING TO MCD's TO GET MY TENDIES". Tendie money is usually shameful and insignificant, but at least it got you tendies. Chicken tenders at McDonalds are the least expensive for the most cholesterol.
I know some of the writing was half ass, full of errors, or otherwise not the best explanation. But I believe this will serve its purpose, and maybe help to promote new ideas from moderately educated traders. WSB has very strong traders, and the most uniquely risky trading styles on the planet. Hopefully this can serve to better the overall community.
You guys are all faggots, upvote this so we can get the noobs to stop trying to bite on our cocks.
Also I'd really appreciate input on anything to add to this overall. It took my over 3 hours to write up, so I eventually grew tired and probably have missing spots.
Enjoy your time here at WSB.
EDIT: Added a shit ton of stuff, fixed errors. THANKS FOR ALL OF YOUR INPUT, ACTUALLY MAKING WSB GREAT AGAIN
MODS: Can we make this editable by others mods or something? My fingers aren't enough. Seems like this could serve as a good "official" thing. Paging u/theycallme1 u/CHAINSAW_VASECTOMY etc
submitted by Thor303456 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85% - Stellar Victorious

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for One Year (2018) - FINAL REPORT FOR 2018 - Down 85% - Stellar Victorious
The end is here.
tl;dr - I am down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151. Best performer of 2018 is Stellar, down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
Click here for full blog post complete with charts, graphs, and charts of graphs.

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos throughout the year, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. It began as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), but I've moved away from that terminology as things have changed quite a bit since January 1st, 2018 (plus the term "Index Fund" seems to bring out the shills trying to sell their own Crypto Index Fund product).
My experiment is less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the entire market- or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018 crypto space. I'm trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.

The Rules:

Buy $100 of each the Top 10 cryptocurrencies on January 1st, 2018. Run the experiment 365 days. Hold only. No selling. No trading. Report monthly.

MONTH/EPISODE TWELVE AND FINAL TALLY - Down 85% in 2018

https://preview.redd.it/9xtqjbxu2t821.png?width=1187&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a3bd521eaf1cc0e2c49d582fa7a4f9b2180040f
December was a quiet month for the experiment - not many fireworks to end the year. Although my portfolio did reach yet another record loss at -85%, it only ticked down one percentage point from the previous month. For comparison, the Dow Jones lost over -6% in December.
Finally tally for the year: I am now down -85% on my Top Ten crypto portfolio since the beginning of the year. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $151.
December Winners - It was a nice change to see a bit of green on my spreadsheet for the last month of the year. Winners: Ethereum and IOTAup an impressive 39% and 30% respectively. Litecoin ticked up 5% as well.
December Losers - Stellar had an uncharacteristically rough month, losing about 1/3 of its value in December. More predictably NEM, which has been a regular cellar-dweller for many of my monthly reports, fared poorly, down -15% in December.

FINAL RESULTS for 2018 – Stellar wins the experiment followed by Bitcoin. Cardano and Bitcoin Cash in virtual tie for worst performance of the year.

Even though Stellar had a rough December, it still ended the experiment solidly in first place followed fairly closely by Bitcoin. This is not a surprise to anyone who's been following the experiment - Stellar has been consistently one of the best performing cryptos each time I report.
Stellar's victory is definitely Pyrrhic, as "winning" 2018 meant losing -66% of its value since January 1st, 2018. Second place Bitcoin? Down -71% on the year.
If that's victory, what's defeat?
Defeat is Cardano and Bitcoin Cash, virtually tied at -94% on the year. For the record, Cardano did slightly worse: my $100 invested in Cardano is now worth $5.97 and my $100 invested in Bitcoin Cash $6.32.
Cardano and Bitcoin Cash are closely followed by NEM and Dash, and all four are members of the "Down Over -90% Club." IOTA's strong December helped it narrowly avoid this distinction as it is now down "only" -89% for the year.
Summary: best performer of 2018 is down -66%, worst performers down -94% and 4 out of 10 cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have lost over 90% of their value.
I'll just let that sink in for a while.
In terms of movement, there was a lot of it: 40% of the cryptos that started the year in the Top Ten have now dropped out. Here's a chart:
https://preview.redd.it/edx09fsv2t821.png?width=328&format=png&auto=webp&s=fdd3f1fd658e48943f2d012e910d27d8a17a32ac
Interestingly, the Top Four ended up in the same top positions after 365 days.
On the other hand, NEM, Dash, IOTA, and Cardano are Top Ten dropouts - they have been replaced by EOS (now at #5), Tether (currently at #8), Bitcoin SV (currently at #9), and Tron (currently at #10).

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

https://preview.redd.it/rli9zc7x2t821.png?width=439&format=png&auto=webp&s=cdef69e9d971979efd622e8bc0dd79759a15df1a
December was basically flat, as the total market cap for crypto hovered right around $130B. A nice little pause from four consecutive record low month-end points since the end of August.
Final figure: the total market cap for crypto dropped -77% in 2018.
Looking back, March was the worst month of the year in terms of both overall amount and percentage loss. Best month-end figure was end of January at $485B.
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $500B: January
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $400B: May
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $300B: June
  • The last time the total market cap of crypto was at $200B: November

Bitcoin dominance:

https://preview.redd.it/96vcv6wx2t821.png?width=290&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e7d32b1577950f0625e907572da331175322dca
Bitcoin dominance dropped slightly from the month-end record highs at the end of October and November, but it's basically been holding steady since the end of August, right around the 50% mark. Too early to tell if the slight drop from 53% to 51% Bitcoin dominance from November to December indicates that buyers are looking at more risky alt-coins, we'll have to wait a bit to see if/how that plays out.
As we've seen this throughout the experiment, when the overall market dives, BTC's dominance increases.
  • 33% Bitcoin dominance at the end of January was the lowest month-end point of the year
  • 53.6% Bitcoin dominance at the end of October was the highest month-end point of the year

Overall return on investment from January 1st, 2018:

https://preview.redd.it/wc77vyxy2t821.png?width=281&format=png&auto=webp&s=d00cd07109872e73249b1f8b378169620dbf25fa
If I wrapped up my experiment and cashed out today, my $1000 initial investment would return $151.81, down -85%.
  • Lowest Top Ten portfolio value: December
  • Highest Top Ten portfolio value: January

Implications/Observations:

The numbers back up what all who were even remotely paying attention to crypto this year noticed: 2018 was not 2017. Beginning 2018 at all time highs put this experiment in a difficult position from the start and I was never able to come close to just breaking even - my "best" month was end of January where I was "only" down -20%.
That said, buying mid-January when prices were even higher would have been worse - hard to imagine considering my Top Ten buys on New Years Day have seen a -85% drop - but yes, it could have been even worse.
Congratulations to Stellar who outperformed its peers in 2018 and was consistently among the monthly top performers.
Focusing solely on holding the Top Ten was a losing strategy. While the overall market is down -77% from January, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -85% over the same period of time. At no point in the experiment has this investment strategy worked: the initial Top Ten continue to under-perform compared to the market overall. The 8% difference is significant, but it has shrunk a bit - it was as wide as a 12% difference at one point during the year (September).
I also tracked the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. After a relatively strong year, the S & P 500 tanked in December, finishing down -6.2% on the year. Had I redirected my $1k investment to the S&P, I would have lost about -$62 on the year.
https://preview.redd.it/phxacotz2t821.png?width=384&format=png&auto=webp&s=3234c1f75a7766857df7b5fe96dccab9c5a60ad6

Conclusion:

Tough year for crypto, to say the least. The year end question is the same one we've been asking all year: is there more room to fall or have we finally hit the bottom for crypto?

Thanks and Future of the Experiment:

Thanks for reading and the support for the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful.
As for the future of the experiment, after receiving some good suggestions, I've decided to do the following:
  1. There's no way I'm selling now at such a loss. Therefore, I'll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten cryptos of 2018 as I've been doing.
  2. I've also decided to repeat the experiment with the Top Ten cryptos of 2019. On the 1st of January 2019, I purchased $100 worth of the Top Ten: Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Stellar, Tether, Litecoin, Bitcoin SV, and Tron.
I honestly wasn't very enthusiastic to buy $100 worth of some of these coins, but I think it will be interesting to compare the Top Ten of 2018 with the Top Ten of 2019 to see how they fare. I'll share the results regularly - I'm aiming for monthly, as I did in 2018.
So - I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports.
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

Latest interview with Jeffrey Gundlach. Transcript of interview.

CNBC Exclusive: CNBC Transcript: DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach Speaks with CNBC’s Scott Wapner Today Published Mon, Dec 17 2018 • 4:06 PM EST WHEN: Today, Monday, December 17, 2018
WHERE: CNBC’s “Fast Money Halftime Report ”
The following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC EXCLUSIVE interview with DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach and CNBC’s Scott Wapner on CNBC’s “Fast Money Halftime Report” (M-F 12PM – 1PM) today, Monday, December 17th. The following are links to video from the interview on CNBC.com: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/12/17/doublelines-jeffery-gundlach-this-is-definitely-a-bear-market-stocks.html, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/12/17/doubleline-jeffrey-gundlach-government-dysfunction-negative-world-economy-congress-demorcrat-house.html, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/12/17/a-high-quality-bond-portfolio-is-2019s-best-bet-says-doublelines-gundlach.html, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/12/17/jeffrey-gundlach-federal-reserve-should-not-raise-interest-rates-december-jay-powell.html, and https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/12/17/doublelines-gundlach-tariffs-are-only-going-to-get-worse-in-the-trade-war-before-they-get-better.html.
All references must be sourced to CNBC.
SCOTT WAPNER: Welcome to Los Angeles Jeffrey. Thank you for having us back.
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: Welcome to DoubleLine.
SCOTT WAPNER: Almost a year to the day we were last with you.
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: I think it was December 13th last year.
SCOTT WAPNER: That’s right. We’re still volatile in the market. Today is another representation of that. We’re still about 50 points above on the S&P of the February lows.
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: Yes.
SCOTT WAPNER: Do you think we’re going to go below that?
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: Well in the fullness of time, I think absolutely we’ll go below that. I’m pretty sure this is a bear market. People like this definition of 20% down as a bear market, but that’s obviously very arbitrary. I’ve been around over 35 years in the business and have seen a number of bear markets. It’s more about how you lead into it, how it develops and how the sentiment changes, and I think we’ve had pretty much all of the variables that characterize a bear market I remember going -- usually something happens that really doesn’t make any sense at all and I’m kind of amazed how it goes on longer than it should like back in the dotcom days when companies were being IPO’d and had no sales let alone revenues that’s hard to be and they would actually explode to the upside on the IPO. That’s kind of crazy and then we had the subprime lending with pick a pay loans back in ’05 and ’06 and that was kind of crazy and that went on longer than it should have. This time like we talked about a year ago it was crypto, bitcoin which was truly a mania, we talked a year ago it just went up. Maybe in the end it’s a good thing or the block chain technology is a good thing. The way it was being treated and believed in was a mania and then it crashed about a week after we met a year ago and it was at 17,500 when we were speaking right in this spot and of course now it’s down below 3,500 so an 85% decline. And one after another you start to see various sectors of the global financial markets give it up. The global stock market peaked January 26th. And so did the New York Stock Exchange composite, January 26 but the Dow Jones Industrials, the Nasdaq, the S&P 500. All of these things, one by one, started to roll over and come the summertime or later in the summertime you were down to the FAANGs and then you were down to two stocks it was amazon and apple and then amazon gave it up. And then finally when they decided they weren’t going to tell you how many phones they sold anymore apple gave it up.
SCOTT WAPNER: That was the last straw.
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: That was kind of the last straw. It was October 3rd when the tariffs -- well, it was that USMC -- whatever it’s called, it’s really NAFTA but it was announced we would have this change in NAFTA that would lead to a requirement that a certain fraction of car parts be made in higher costs locales which basically meant not Mexico. A senior executive at ford motor said, well obviously we’re going to have to raise the prices on our cars if input prices are going up. Suddenly the market seemed to wake up to the fact that this was real and the next day the stock market tipped over in fact, on October 3rd, Jay Powell said we’re a long way from neutral. And that was a big problem, too.
SCOTT WAPNER: That seemed to be the tipping point.
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: Yes that with the USMCA thing and the Ford Motor executive, those things seemed to come together and coalesce into we’ve had enough. And, yeah, the Jay Powell thing was interpreted by the market as a scary thing, the fed was going to keep going a long distance further and then the market dropped over 10% and suddenly the Fed had to massage the rhetoric. And suddenly it was, well, we have a new definition of neutral maybe. We’re actually within the lower bound or close to the lower bound of neutral in an attempt to stabilize the market. So, yeah, it seems like a bear market to me in the way things trade with late day volume being bad and the like the best thing for the near term, I think, is that the most export sensitive stock market, South Korea, the Kospi bottomed October 29 so at least that’s not pushing to new lows and emerging markets broadly are doing better because they’re extremely export driven. Maybe this leg down is getting toward an exhaustion point the sentiment is pretty dark right now. I’d be happier on the short term outlook if the VIX would go above 40 which is usually a sign.
SCOTT WAPNER: That would be quite a spike.
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: Well, that’s typically what happens when you get to the bottom, there’s so much nervousness and fear but the Vix is a little bit disturbing how it doesn’t go higher. Actually as the market pushes to the down side. But i think this is a bear market and i think we’ll go below the February lows almost with certainty.
SCOTT WAPNER: Is it a long lasting bear market or it can be short term as some have suggested on our air and then this secular bull market will resume?
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: I don’t think so. I think it’s a bear market. I think we’ve had the first leg down and the second leg down is usually more painful than the first leg down if this is indeed a bear market. Maybe in the short term we’re getting flushed out. I think it’s lasted a long time. It has a lot to do with the fact i believe we’re in a situation that maybe unprecedented was too strong but it is highly unusual that we are increasing the budget deficit so spectacularly so late in the cycle while the fed is hiking interest rates. I know you’ve teased the segment by talking about the suicide mission I’ve been talking about for months. The fed almost seems to be on a suicide mission. What i mean by that the deficit in the United States is extraordinarily high from where we are in the economic cycle and given what the debt level accumulated is already. In the first two months of fiscal ’19 it was just announced last week there’s a funny thing that happened in November where the payments for December ended up being pushed to November because December 1st was on a Saturday if you take that out it’s $44 billion that’s a big number. So if you wake that out and say that’s December and not November. Still, the first two months of fiscal ’19, the budget deficit is going up at an annualized rate of $1.62 trillion. And that’s the official budget deficit. The actual budget deficit is larger than what the report -- for example, for fiscal ’18, which ends September 30th, the deficit was around $800 billion. But the national debt went up by $1.3 trillion almost now. Why? What’s the difference there? There are items that are off budget. So the budget deficit really for fiscal ’18 was $1.3 nearly trillion that’s 6% of GDP and we’re supposedly having a good economy and we’re supposedly having jobs growth and all this other great stuff. In actuality we increase the deficit by 6% of GDP since government deficit change is a significant fraction – a significant variable in the GDP equation it seems to me there’s no real economic growth that’s happening away from the deficit. So what worries me is that as we move into a weaker economy, which will happen at some points and certainly the economy looks weaker now than it did entering 2018, that the deficit will continue to expand at a rate which could be prohibitive for the usual decline in interest rates helping to stimulate the economy. That’s what I think is the real big variable investors need to focus on. And while this is happening with the deficit exploding, the fed is raising interest rates which means the interest expense is going to be increasing year by year as these zero interest rates that we had for a number of years start to roll off and the bonds have to be refloated once they mature, the next five years we have something like $7 trillion of treasuries that are maturing the average coupon on those treasuries is almost as low as 2%, slightly higher, 2.1%. When they roll over, they’re going to be at a higher interest rate because the fed has been on the suicide mission of raising interest rates so the interest expense on that $7 trillion of treasuries is going to be -- maybe the rate will be at 3% like it is now or maybe 4% and you might even see we have an expense that goes up $100, $140 billion. So kind of the … of our government is coming back to haunt us ultimately. In financial markets, these things go on so much longer than they should Ross Perot ran for president running infomercials about we were doomed on the deficit and there was a book written in 1992, that same year, that was somewhat sponsored by the Peterson Foundation called bankruptcy 1994. And the idea behind the book was we have this compounding curve and this debt problem that is going to come back and really cause us problems. Well, he was early. He was early by at least 26 years. But he’s right, you can’t keep going on with the debt finance scheme, and I’m worried when the next recession comes we could be looking at, well heck, we’re supposedly in a good economy and the next two months we’re running $1.6 trillion what if we go into a recession what’s the deficit going to be $3 trillion? And does that mean interest rates don’t go down during the next recession, which is an idea I’ve been noodling around for a long time maybe they go higher with I’ve had a call the next two years that come 2021 the ten-year treasury will be at 6%. I get a lot of pushback a lot of debt deflation is out there in the twitter-sphere absolutely wrong the economy can’t handle higher interest rates. Interest rates might have a life of their own. It might not matter what the market can handle or can’t handle.
SCOTT WAPNER: they haven’t to this point. It’s been somewhat surprising that rates have remained where they are you said 3%. They hit 3%. 3.25%. Here we are below 2.9% today.
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: yes, on the ten year. I was focusing on the three year when it broke above 3.25% that was incredibly important frankly, I didn’t think we’d go back below 3.25 once we broke above because it seemed like such an important level. Here we are back below 3.25. But not impressively not in a way that would be consistent with a big decline in the global stock market. There’s a thing called the death cross. It’s a 50-day moving average goes below 200 a day particularly when they’re both declining. Presently about 80% of the countries in the MSCI World Index are in a death cross 80%. It’s amazing. And there was a chart that got a lot of play put out by deutsche bank about how many risk assets globally are in officially bear market down the arbitrary 20% number that, again, i don’t really ascribe to but so commonly used at that they used it and the highest in the data series going back to 1901. It’s like 90% of the risk assets around the world in dollar terms are in bear markets. So it’s a pretty widespread and coordinated set of weaknesses.
SCOTT WAPNER: Are you saying that by embarking on this suicide mission that the fed shouldn’t raise interest rates this week?
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: I don’t really think that’s the main thrust of my idea this week, yeah, they shouldn’t raise them this week.
SCOTT WAPNER: They shouldn’t?
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: No I don’t think they should. The bond market is saying, fed, you’ve got no way you should be raising interest rates look at the 2s, 3s, five-year part of the yield curve which are flat at 270 I guess that corroborative of a hike. But it is basically saying in the year 2019 you’re going to have a cut, this big, but a cut that was priced into the yield curve and in 2020 another cut. The problem, though, isn’t that the fed shouldn’t be raising rates. The problem is the fed shouldn’t have kept them so low for so long.
SCOTT WAPNER: Sure.
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: The problem we shouldn’t have had negative interest rates like we still have in Europe. We shouldn’t have done quantitative easing which is a circular financing scheme. The problem really is the deficit. The fed is kind of helpless here. The fact that the deficit is so out of control this late in the economic cycle, we have never before had the fed raise interest rates while the budget deficit was expanding it’s never happened. Because usually the budget deficit expands in response to a recession. It’s a way of stimulating to get us out of recession. Instead, we did it as a last gasp of keeping this economic recovery going by making it completely deficit based.
SCOTT WAPNER: So this morning, President Trump once again Tweeted about the Fed. Quote, “It’s incredible that with a very strong dollar and virtually no inflation, the outside world blowing up around us, Paris burning, China way down, that the Fed is even considering another interest rate hike. Take the victory,” he stayed. Stan Druckenmiller, today, Op-Ed “Wall Street Journal”: The Fed should quote “Pause its double-barreled blitz of higher rates and tighter liquidity.” So they’re right, you agree with them?
JEFFREY GUNDLACH: I do agree with them. I’ve been saying this pretty much all year, the double-barreled was actually -- he may have borrowed that from me, that’s how I’ve been talking about – it’s how I’ve been phrasing it all year – that we’ve really been tightening interest rates in a way that’s more than people understand. There’s a duo of economists at the Atlanta Fed called Wu and Xia, who did a study a few years back ‘What was the effect of quantitative easing?’ If they hadn’t done the quantitative easing and instead had taken the European model and gone to negative interest rates, how negative would those rates have had to be to have the same stimulative effect as the quantitative easing? And they concluded – and I don’t know if they’re right or not it’s very hypothetical – but their conclusion was that the quantitative easing amounted to 300 basis points of further cuts. So if they hadn’t done quantitative easing, to have the same stimulative effect, the Fed funds would have had been negative 300 basis points. Well let’s just say they’re right. Since they did about 2.5 trillion of quantitative easing and it was 300 basis points, 2.5 trillion divided by 3 is roughly $800 billion. Okay? So $800 billion is -- $800 billion divided by 4 means that’s what quantitative easing is one cut. So 100 basis points is $800 billion. So divided by 4. 25 basis points is $200 billion of quantitative easing. Well so far we’re pushing towards $400 billion -- we’re not there yet but we’re soon to be there -- of quantitative tightening. That means we’ve had would more rate hikes from quantitative tightening if Wu and Xia are right. So the Fed hasn’t just raised rates in that context eight times. They’ve raised them ten times. And the quantitative tightening is stated to be as high as $600 billion over fiscal ’19. So that’s another three rate hikes. So if they were going to follow their dots and raise rates so many times, there’s another three on top of that. So the amount of tightening has been underappreciated, I think, and Stan is right as he often is – he’s one of the greatest investors ever for, him and Chanos, the two titans of the hedge fund industry. They’re right that we are seeing the bond market react in a way that is historically very predictive of the Fed should not be doing this. And yet, we have this strange dynamic that they’ve almost promised a rate hike here in December. And then the President shows up with his Tweets trying to bully them into not doing it and it puts Jay Powell and the team in a very tough position. Because they’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
submitted by FunctionOfLife to investing [link] [comments]

[Daily BAT Discussion] Whoosh - April 19, 2018

April 19, 2018
Surf's up BAT dudes! Welcome to the Daily BAT Discussion!
Yesterday's Market Movements - Up
Wow, yesterday we were hit with the big splash of news of the Dow Jones Media Group partnership (which you can read all over reddit), resulting crazy market movements. It went absolutely nuts, going from 3500 satsoshis running on under 300 BTC volume on Binance, up to an insane high of 5300 at one point, going up and down inbetween, and dropping back down to around 4300 this morning with over 3600 BTC volume on Binance. Bitcoin and Ethereum also rose a bit along with the rest of the markets, so overall a very positive gain. BAT sitting at high 4300s ($0.36) after hitting seemingly a double-bottom at the time of this post.
I think we also gained a couple hundred new subscribers to our subreddit, as well as in our Telegram group. If you're new to the BAT project, we welcome you!
Feel free to post here in the daily, or in the subreddit if you have any questions. Drop by our Telegram or RocketChat also - there's always someone in the community or on the BAT team ready and able to answer questions!
Also, in general it seems the sentiment of BAT around the crypto community is shifting. Throughout the day I've seen good comments from people who aren't even invested, and more people seem to be learning about what the project actually is. If you see someone asking about Basic Attention Token or Brave, be sure to help fill them in if you can!
I also want to say a big thank you Brave and BAT team! You guys have been absolutely awesome in your communication and transparency with the team. You guys are seriously killing it on all fronts.
Hope everyone has a GREAT day! Over and out.
(recap) BAT has new Official Telegram channel
Join us on the official BAT telegram! @BATProject
Current members: 1830
Tutorials
Here are some guides for new people getting into crypto, especially BAT. Invest responsibly!
Daily Discussion Rules
Remember, the permitted topics of discussion include, but are not limited to:
In case this daily doesn't get stickied, remember to upvote!
Disclaimer: All content on BAT Dailies are not affiliated with the official Brave or BAT team, and are solely run and provided by the BAT community unless otherwise stated.
submitted by dragespir to BATProject [link] [comments]

Did crypto just de-correlate?

Turmoil in the wider markets has coincided with a crypto rally. What’s going on?
A few weeks back, when bitcoin plunged below its $6,000 support line, that move took place alongside heavy falls in the regular markets. The Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, FTSE100 – all were hit, largely driven by tech stocks being sold off. The narrative at the time was that traders were cautious about the big picture, and were adopting a risk-off approach: more speculative plays, from overvalued stocks to bitcoin, were being ditched for safer assets. In short, having previously carved out a niche as a risk-on asset – digital gold – bitcoin was being treated just the same as any other risky asset.
But now, something interesting has happened. As the Fed hikes interest rates and the broader stock markets experience a major sell-off, crypto has recovered – with bitcoin staging a 30% rally in recent days. Stocks are at a 52-week low, but gold is at a 5-month high. And digital gold is picking up too.
https://cryptoinferno.org/news/crypto-just-de-correlate/
submitted by Kylew88 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

End of day Summary - 03/13

The Dow fell 171.58, or 0.68%, to 25,007.03, the Nasdaq lost 77.31, or 1.02%, to 7,511.01, and the S&P 500 declined 17.71, or 0.64%, to 2,765.31.
U.S. equities got off to a good start on Tuesday, but began declining soon thereafter, finishing the session on a broadly lower note. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended with losses of 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite, which hit new all-time highs in the two prior sessions, dropped 1.0%.
Stocks opened with nice gains following the in-line consumer prices report for February. The data showed inflation remained tame, which brought out buyers who pushed the averages up roughly 0.4% across the board. In the second hour of trading the cracks began to show as the news cycle was dominated by the firing of Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State. During the afternoon trading session, the sellers gained control and pushed the Nasdaq to losses of more than 1% and the Dow and S&P to losses of over 0.5% each.
The top-weighted technology and financials sectors, which comprise around 40% of the broader market combined, led Tuesday's tumble, dropping 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively. Cyclical sectors underperformed in general, while some countercyclical groups, like health care (+0.2%) and utilities (+0.2%), actually finished in the green.
The major averages were either at, or below, their flat lines by midday, but selling accelerated in the afternoon following a Politico headline that the White House could announce "steep" tariffs and investment restrictions on China as soon as next week.
Among the noteworthy gainers were DSW which gained about 11% after reporting quarterly results. Shares of retailers were sharply higher as they attend the BOAML Consumer & Retail Technology Conference. M gained 3.7%, while KSS rallied 2.7%.
Among the notable losers was GE, which fell 4.4% after JPMorgan analyst Stephen Tusa cut his PT to $11 from $14. QCOM shares slipped 5% while AVGO shares dipped 0.6% after President Trump issued an executive order to block the chipmaker from buying its rival on the grounds of protecting U.S. national security. INTC, which may have been threatened by a combined QCOM -AVGO, gained 0.5% following the news, while MU, which has been named by analysts as a potential alternate target for Broadcom, advanced fractionally. Mizuho raised its price target to $66, the third firm to raise its target this week.
Stocks in Asia closed mixed as investors look forward to the release of U.S. inflation data later in the day. In Europe, stocks fell, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP down 0.98%.

Currency

The United States Dollar Index fell immediately after President Donald Trump's decision to replace Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was announced. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% at 89.65, tracking its third consecutive decline.

Treasury

U.S. Treasuries ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note with the long bond pacing the advance. The rally wasn't effortless as Treasuries climbed out of the gate, but surrendered their early gains during mid-morning trade, only to see the long bond return to its opening high. In the bond market, U.S. Treasuries ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note, with longer-dated issues pacing the advance.

Commodity

Oil prices fell in volatile trade on Tuesday, as a surge in U.S. shale oil output and deteriorating equity markets weighed on futures.

Crypto

The world's largest digital currency approached $9,500 earlier today, but quickly gave up these gains, falling below the $9,000 mark several times.

YTD

What's tomorrow?
Looking ahead, investors will receive a sizable batch of economic data on Wednesday: Retail Sales for February and the Producer Price Index for February will both be released at 8:30 AM ET, while the less influential Business Inventories report for January will cross the wires at 10:00 AM ET. Also of note, the EIA will release its weekly crude inventory report at 10:30 AM ET.
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Stock Market Reaches All-Time High

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